The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 5 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming and clearing out after the past week of cold and rainy conditions. The last chance of precipitation will be leaving the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau this morning (20% chance in the AM) and warmer temperatures are on their way this afternoon and into tomorrow. This morning skies will start as partly cloudy in most areas but will clear quickly as partly sunny to sunny conditions spread across the region. High temperatures across the area will regain the 50’s. The Dallas/Fort Worth metro region will be in the mid 50’s this afternoon, whereas the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will just reach 50 degrees. On the Edwards Plateau itself, high temperatures today will just get to 50 degrees in most areas. Oklahoma City will stay in the mid 40’s but the 50 degree mark will occur in areas bordering north Texas, such as the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will be from the south and southwest at lite to moderate in all locations, except on the Edwards Plateau where a predominantly west to northwest wind direction will blow at lite to moderate wind speeds. Tonight skies will remain monstly clear to clear with temperatures to the north and across the Plateau in the mid to upper 20’s. The area from Dallas/Fort Worth southward along the Edwards Plateau edge will remain in the low to mid 30’s. Winds will remain lite to moderate but the flow across the region will be coming from the west and northwest. Tomorrow, improving conditions will see sunny skies and temperatures wil be firmly in the 50’s. The southernmost communities bordering the Edwards Plateau will flirt with the 60 degree mark. Winds will begin to build as they switch from the west and northwest flow of the past evening and come from a more northeasterly direction. In the edge communities winds will become moderate in strength. Tomorrow night mostly clear to clear conditions return across the region with low temperatures in the mid to low 30’s in the edge communities and returning into the 20’s north in Oklahoma and on the Edwards Plateau itself.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains are detached from the Edwards Plateau to the south and move towards the northeast heading towards the northeast corner of Oklahoma. Near central Oklahoma the trajectories will take a more easterly direction and move over Arkansas then off to the southeast. Temperatures today and tomorrow will struggle to get into the upper 40’s and thus pollen release may be somewhat restricted. The region will mimic areas to the south as warmer temperatures begin to dry the region out. The air will be mostly stable with little buoyancy, thus any pollen entrained within the airstream will have a greater chance to be removed from impaction on vegetation. However, as the region warms the anticipated release of pollen in larger amounts will occur and thus winds moving through the area will have a better chance of picking up and entraining pollen late today and then tomorrow. Local releases are always possible and may affect allergy sufferers directly if they are in close contact with individual trees, and or live in areas where the tree populations occur.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Cool temperatures across the region with high temperatures struggling to get into the upper 40’s today and tomorrow. Although skies will clear and sunny conditions will prevail over the forecast area. The atmosphere will be stable and dense with the flow of cold air over the region occurring near or at ground level. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel as the area begins to warm and dry out. Those conditions return tomorrow but with added drying moderate conditions for pollination should exist.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page