The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 6 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming and clearing today with clear sunny skies today and tonight. Late tonight clouds will begin to build once again for tomorrow, then tomorrow night rain will build over Texas. Winds today will be from the north at moderate conditions across Oklahoma and moderate from the northeast across Texas. High temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 40’s and 50’s. Across Texas the edge communities will reach into the upper 50’s and low 60’s. On the Plateau, high temperatures will be in the mid 50’s. Tonight low temperatures will drop into the seasonal mid 20’s in most areas to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. In areas from the Dallas/Fort Worth area southward to the edge communities the low temperatures will remain in the 30’s. Winds will be lite from the northeast in most areas. The far western communities on the Edwards Plateau will see more moderate wind speeds. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will build to be mostly cloudy by mid-day. High temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to the north in Oklahoma, and in the mid to upper 50’s across Texas. The communities in and around the Edwards Plateau will be warmer than the communities to the west. Winds will be from the east in east Texas and from the south-southeast across the Edwards Plateau and in north Texas into Oklahoma. Tomorrow night, cloudy conditions will remain with moisture moving into Texas. There will a chance of rain tomorrow night from Dallas/Fort Worth southward across the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will remain in the 40’s across the region and east to southeasterly winds will move across the region at moderate levels.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move southward on the northerly winds today then shift northward on southeasterly winds that take over tonight. Winds will be lite across the area. The air will remain dense and therefore little pollen is expected to be entrained, however the trajectory will move initially southward then turn northward and move quickly across Oklahoma and out of the region. Conditions today will see high temperatures in the upper 40’s and tomorrow into the 50’s. Tomorrow there is a 10% chance of rain across central Oklahoma. The Arbuckle Mountains will begin to warm and dry out. With warmer conditions we should see the initial release of pollen from this area either today or tomorrow. Local releases are always possible and may affect allergy sufferers directly if they are in close contact with individual trees, and or live in areas where the tree populations occur. Downwind transport today and tomorrow will move pollen south of the Edwards Plateau into southernmost Texas and Mexico.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Cool temperatures across the region with high temperatures only in the upper 40’s today, but then into the 50’stomorrow but with cloudy skies. The atmosphere will be stable and dense with the flow of cold air over the region occurring near or at ground level. For these reasons there will be poor conditions for entrainment and travel today as the area begins to warm and dry out. Those conditions return tomorrow but with added drying moderate conditions for pollination will exist. With warmer conditions the return of pollination will begin again. We are approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. Today and tomorrow conditions will continue to build for the release of pollen from the trees that will lead to conditions conducive to pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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