The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 7 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming. Skies will begin across the area as partly sunny to partly cloudy, but those skies will darken and build towards the afternoon and into tonight and tomorrow with an increasing chance of rain. High temperatures today will be in the upper 50’s across the region with lite to moderate winds from the east and southeast. Tonight clouds will build in as the east and southeasterly winds interact with a system moving in from the west. The western system will bring moisture that will eventually build into showers and thunderstorms. Tonight in the edge communities the chance of rain increases to 50% in Austin and 60% in San Antonio. The chance of rain will also extend across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures tonight will be seasonal with areas on the western Plateau and in Oklahoma in the 30’s and lows in the 40’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain lite from the east to southeast. Tomorrow rain will build across the entire region. In Oklahoma a 30% chance of rain will occur in the Arbuckle Mountains. Across Texas the chance of rain builds with showers and thunderstorms ranging from 60% to 100% in the edge communities. Winds will turn from the east and southeast direction to coming from the northeast. They will remain lite at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will return back into the 50’s except for the far west where high 40’s are expected. Tomorrow night rains continue to build. Rain and thunderstorms are expected across the entire rarea. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas remaining in the 40’s and 50’s. Winds will remain from the northeast and east at lite to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on the southerly winds today into tonight. As the next weather system from the west moves towards the region clouds will build and the chance of showers will increase tonight across Texas first and then tomorrow morning into Oklahoma. The wind trajectories will move northward across Oklahoma ahead of the weather system moving in from the west. The trajectories show little buoyancy and thus pollen that is release today has a significant chance of being removed from the air stream as it moves close to the ground. Tomorrow, significant rain is expected to build in and around the Arbuckle Mountains with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will expected tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures remain mild and winds will remain from the east and southeast. Tomorrow night the chance of rain continues to build with southern Oklahoma having a significant chance of precipitation. Winds will remain from the east to southeast at lite to moderate levels.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** Warming temperatures across the region for pollen release today ahead of major precipitation beginning tonight and tomorrow. Conditions will be in the 50’s starting with clear to partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be lite from the east and southeast today. The chance of precipitation is low today but begins to build tonight across Texas and with tomorrow and tomorrow night expected to be wet across the region. The atmosphere remains cold and dense. Winds will move the trajectories northward across central Oklahoma and into Kansa. Any pollen entrained within the air mass will move past Oklahoma City then potentially onward towards St. Louis over the next 24 to 48 hours. Pollen momving from the Edwards Plateau may contribute to these levels (see the Edwards Plateau, Texas forecast) Entrainment and travel with the poor conditions for entrainment along with the interaction of the incoming moisture may limit the amount of pollen flowing outside of the region. The trees will be shedding pollen as the region warms and continues to dry out today, therefore pollen levels are expected to build. Tonight moisture enters the region with significant rain expected tomorrow and tomorrow night. The tree population is approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. Today there will be conditions for pollen release in the atmosphere compared to tomorrow when pollen will be constrained by the forecast precipitation.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page