The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 7 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming. Skies will begin across the area as partly sunny to partly cloudy, but those skies will darken and build towards the afternoon and into tonight and tomorrow with an increasing chance of rain. High temperatures today will be in the upper 50’s across the region with lite to moderate winds from the east and southeast. Tonight clouds will build in as the east and southeasterly winds interact with a system moving in from the west. The western system will bring moisture that will eventually build into showers and thunderstorms. Tonight in the edge communities the chance of rain increases to 50% in Austin and 60% in San Antonio. The chance of rain will also extend across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures tonight will be seasonal with areas on the western Plateau and in Oklahoma in the 30’s and lows in the 40’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain lite from the east to southeast. Tomorrow rain will build across the entire region. In Oklahoma a 30% chance of rain will occur in the Arbuckle Mountains. Across Texas the chance of rain builds with showers and thunderstorms ranging from 60% to 100% in the edge communities. Winds will turn from the east and southeast direction to coming from the northeast. They will remain lite at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will return back into the 50’s except for the far west where high 40’s are expected. Tomorrow night rains continue to build. Rain and thunderstorms are expected across the entire region. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas remaining in the 40’s and 50’s. Winds will remain from the northeast and east at lite to moderate levels.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northwestward on the east to southeasterly winds today into tonight. As the next weather system from the west moves towards the region clouds will build and the chance of showers will increase tonight across Texas first and then into Oklahoma. The wind trajectories will encounter the system, thus initially moving northwestward but then travelling across the Panhandle of Texas and then back to the northeast across west central Oklahoma and into southeast Kansas and into Missouri. The trajectories show some buoyancy and thus pollen that is release today should become entrained into the atmosphere and be able to travel downwind. Tomorrow, significant rain is expected across the region with showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain mild and winds will be from the northeast as the system from the west moves into the region. Tomorrow night the chance of rain continues to build with most areas on the Edwards Plateau having a 90% to 100% chance of precipitation. Winds will remain from the northeast at lite to moderate levels.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow *** Warming temperatures across the region for pollen release today ahead of major precipitation beginning tonight and tomorrow. Conditions will be in the 50’s starting with clear to partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be lite from the east and southeast today. Temperatures today will move into the upper 50’s on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. The chance of precipitation is low today but begins to build tonight with tomorrow and tomorrow night expected to be wet. The atmosphere will be moderately buoyant and winds will move the trajectories towards the northwest then loop back to the north-northeast moving over the Texas Panhandle, central Oklahoma, then towards Missouri. Pollen entrained within the air mass will move past Oklahoma City then onward towards St. Louis over the next 24 to 48 hours. Entrainment and travel with the interaction of the incoming moisture may limit the amount of pollen flowing outside of the region. The trees will be shedding pollen as the region warms and continues to dry out today, therefore pollen levels are expected to be high. Tonight moisture builds in with significant rain expected tomorrow and tomorrow night. The tree population is approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. Today there will be conditions for significant pollen levels in the atmosphere compared to tomorrow when pollen will be constrained by the forecast precipitation.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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