The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 8 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be seasonal Most areas will be in the 50’s today and only about 10 degrees cooler tonight. There is a significant chance of rain occurring across the entire region today, tonight, tomorrow and finally starting to taper off tomorrow night. All areas will see showers and thunderstorms during the next two days. Skies will be cloudy and winds will be from the northeast today and tonight. In Oklahoma winds will be from the south and southeast at lite levels today. Tonight wind speeds will increase across Texas then calm and become more mixed tomorrow. In Oklahoma the winds will begin to build tonight with moderate conditions tomorrow. Tomorrow winds will be from the northeast in northern Texas and Oklahoma, whereas further south winds will come from the west at lite to moderate conditions. Temperatures will be mild with highs today in the upper 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to 50 degrees and in the lower 50’s in southern Oklahoma. Tonight the region will only fall by 5 degrees as showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the area. Tomorrow conditions return to cloudy skies with a significant chance of showers and thunderstorms returning. High temperatures will build back into the upper 50’s and low 60’s, especially in the edge communities. The chance of precipitation continues to be in the 70% to 100% range. Winds will be lite across the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities coming from the west and northwest. Tomorrow night conditions will begin to improve with a reduced chance of precipitation and low temperatures cooling into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. Winds will be from the west as skies will begin to clear.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move initially northwestward on an east to northeasterly winds today and over the next 48 hours will continue to wrap around a low pressure system that is moving across the area. As this next weather system moves in from the west clouds will build and the chance of showers will increase today, tonight, tomorrow and finally starting to taper off tomorrow night. The wind trajectories will move in a counterclockwise pattern as the system moves across the region. The low pressure will provide buoyant conditions as it moves through but it will also be associated with significant precipitation in the form of showers and thunderstorms. With wet conditions little pollen is expected to be released and any pollen entrained in the atmosphere should be washed out. These conditions will extend through today, tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Stormy conditions today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night will bring precipitation across the region. Seasonally mild conditions will occur along with cloudy skies and lite to moderate winds. The poor conditions for pollination, entrainment and travel indicate that there will be a very low threat of pollen dispersal today and tomorrow across the entire region. Entrainment and travel with the interaction of the incoming moisture will limit any pollen flow outside of the region. This quick break will end tomorrow night with conditions more conducive for pollen release beginning to build towards the end of the week. Trees will be shedding pollen soon enough as the region warms and begins to dry out. Once the weather clears and begins to warm, the tree populations will be approaching the heart of the historic pollination season. Today and tomorrow there will be very poor conditions for significant pollen levels in the atmosphere.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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