The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 9 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather is wet with significant amounts of rain since yesterday evening especially in the edge communities and on the Edwards Plateau. Most areas will be in the 50’s today across the Edwards Plateau with temperatures in the low 60’s in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The significant chance of rain continues today tapering off towards the evening. Winds will be from the northeast at moderate levels. Tonight the system will move out of the region with precipitation continuing into the morning hours. As the rains leave the area, the sky will shift from being cloudy to mostly cloudy then mostly sunny tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will be in the 40’s in Oklahoma as well as in the Metro region of Dallas/Fort Worth. Nighttime temperatures in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be cooler and in the mid-40’s. On the Plateau, temperatures will fall into the upper 30’s. Winds will begin to shift with most areas to the north and east having strong winds coming from the east as the system moves through. On the Plateau winds will begin to turn coming from the west and southwest. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear with rain still in the forecast for Oklahoma and the western most portions of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will warm with all areas in Texas returning to highs in the 60’s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at moderate strengths. Tomorrow night skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will be in the mid 40’s on lite to moderate winds coming from the southwest. Tomorrow in Oklahoma the chance of rain will remain with high temperatures in the mid 50’s. Tomorrow night will see partly cloudy skies as the system clears the area with temperatures in the 40’s and winds coming from the south.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau swirl as the system moves through the area. The air-mass is very buoyant and thus the air is rising rapidly and moving in multiple directions. Overall, the system will be moving towards the east over time and eventually out of the area. In Texas the rains will begin to taper off this afternoon and tonight. In Oklahoma the system will continue to effect the region into tomorrow morning. Significant amounts of precipitation with this system will have cleaned the air of most particulate matter including pollen and mold. Therefore although the trajectories show a very active system there should be little pollen entrained for deposition downwind. Tomorrow the region will be drying out on warming conditions and depending upon how rapidly this occurs some pollen may be release in localized areas. The next big day for pollination will probably occur on Friday or Saturday depending upon the atmospheric conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today and Low threat tomorrow *** Stormy conditions today, tonight, ending tomorrow will bring precipitation across the region. Seasonally mild conditions will occur along with cloudy skies and lite to moderate winds that will swirl over the area with a very buoyant air system. Significant precipitation across the region will wash most particulate matter from the atmosphere. The poor conditions for pollination, entrainment and travel indicate that there will be a very low threat of pollen dispersal today and tomorrow across the entire region. The process of drying will begin tomorrow thus a limited amount pollen may be released. This quick break will end with conditions more conducive for pollen release beginning to build towards the end of the week. Once the weather clears and begins to warm, the tree populations will be approaching the heart of the historic pollination season.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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