The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 10 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will begin to dry out from the storm conditions over the past few days. Temperatures will be warming on southerly winds that will be strong today. High temperatures will be in the upper 50’s and 60’s with the Arbuckle Mountains in the low 60’s and the Edwards Plateau in the upper 50’s. To the north and across the Plateau skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy clearing to sunny skies later in the day. The north areas in Oklahoma will continue to be partly cloudy with a chance of drizzle on and off today. Across the region the winds will be from the south west and south gaining in strength into the afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will occur to the north as the remnants of yesterday’s system moves east. Over the rest of the forecast areas mostly clear to clear conditions will be prevalent. Low temperatures will fall into the mid 40’s across the region and winds will remain from the south with moderate conditions over the Plateau and in Oklahoma. Other areas will experience lite southerly winds. Tomorrow the Plateau will be partly cloudy and the remainder of the region will see mostly sunny to sunny conditions. Temperatures will warm into the 70’s across the region with strong winds from the south, most areas will see winds in the 20 to 25 mph level. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions build back in. There will be a 20% chance of showers in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau as well as the eastern side of the Plateau. Low temperatures will be very mild with the edge communities staying in the 50’s and 60’s, while the Plateau will drop into the mid 40’s. Winds will be moderate from the south decreasing through the night as the areas furthest west where winds will shift coming from the northwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move due north across eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas then over Missouri. Moderate to strong winds from the south will move the atmosphere, however the air will be relatively stable and thus move at or near the ground. Warming conditions with high temperatures in the 60’s will help to dry the region out from the rain that was in the area within the last 24 hours. Because the region is coming from very wet and relatively cool conditions over the past week, pollination should be increasing today and even more so tomorrow. Moderate conditions for pollen release today and even better conditions tomorrow. In Oklahoma the same southerly winds move any pollen released from the Arbuckle Mountain to the north across east central Oklahoma into the upper Midwest. As with the Edwards Plateau, the air will be stable if not somewhat dense moving any pollen entrained in the atmosphere near the ground where impaction may remove a significant amounts. Tomorrow the region will continue drying out on warming conditions and depending upon how rapidly this occurs the next big day for pollination will occur on Friday. Friday night and Saturday morning a chance of precipitation reappears on the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau and the surrounding communities.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Severe threat Tomorrow *** Warming conditions today, tonight, and tomorrow will bring very good conditions for pollen release and entrainment with warm temperatures and strong southern winds. Significant precipitation and cold conditions across the region has restricted pollen release. Conditions will be improving today and then tomorrow thus significant amounts of pollen release is expected. The moderate conditions for pollen release will be overcome by the moderate to strong winds for entrainment and travel indicate. For these reasons today’s pollination will get the ball rolling with moderate expectations for pollen being delivered downwind. Tomorrow conditions will improve with significant amounts of pollen occurring across the region. Significant amounts of pollen should be expected in and around the tree populations (Austin, San Antonio, Waco, The Edwards Plateau), as well as northward (Oklahoma, Tulsa, Arkansas, Missouri). The break from atmospheric pollen concentrations will end with conditions more conducive for pollen release beginning to build today and tomorrow. With the weather clearing and warming, the tree populations will be approaching the heart of the historic pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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