The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to dry out from the storm conditions over the past few days. Temperatures will be warm with most locations in the lower 70’s today on southerly winds that will be strong, especially in the afternoon. The Arbuckle Mountain population will experience the same skies with partly cloudy conditions as well as the strong southerly winds. Tonight to the north partly cloudy skies will build in with low temperatures very mild for this time of the year. In Oklahoma lows will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s from central portion of the state towards Texas. In Texas, low temperatures will be in the mid 50’s in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and in the low 60’s in the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau warm conditions will wane towards the west with Junction expected to drop to 50 tonight but the western towns of San Angelo and Sonora dropping into the upper 30’s and 40’s. Winds will remain moderate, beginning the evening from the south but switching overnight and coming from the north to northwest in the morning. Tomorrow most of the region will be cloudy with areas from Oklahoma south onto the eastern Plateau and in the edge communities will have a 20% to 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Morning fog will be common in these areas. To the west cloudy conditions will be prevalent but with little rain. High temperatures will drop be 10 to 15 degrees with the highs expected to be in the 50’s in most areas and warmer in the edge communities with highs in the 60’s and low 70’s, again. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will build into the area with a chance of rain returning. Temperatures will cool with the Plateau in the 20’s and 30’s, the edge communities in the 40’s and to the north a return back to the 30’s in north Texas and 20’s in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds across the region will be from the north at lite to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move due north across central eastern Oklahoma to Arkansas and as a stream northwards over Missouri. Moderate to strong winds from the south will move the atmosphere to the north. However, the air will be relatively stable and thus move at or near the ground level initially. Warm conditions with high temperatures in the 60’s will help to finish drying out the Arbuckle Mountain trees and it should be very good conditions for pollination. Pollination conditions will deteriorate tomorrow because of the chance of rain and cloudy conditions. Where the rain falls it will wash pollen grains out of the atmosphere. The areas slated for potential rainfall include the southern Oklahoma area. If rainfall occurs it could dampen the overall amount of pollen in the atmosphere. Winds will start out from the south at lite to moderate levels today but then switch coming from the north tonight into tomorrow. The chance of rain tomorrow will build in most areas this evening and tomorrow. Temperatures will be seasonal tomorrow in the 40’s and 50’s and then drop into the 20’s tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat today and Moderate threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions today, but the chance of rain returns tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today conditions will be very good conditions for pollen release and entrainment with warm temperatures and strong southern winds. The atmosphere is stable, however, and this may reduce the overall amount of pollen that moves any distance. Conditions will be improving today and then tomorrow the chance of rain returns to the area, thus lesser amounts of pollen is expected to be released, and some areas may see no releases. The moderate conditions for pollen release tomorrow will be bolstered by increasing chances of precipitation and calming winds initially from the south but turning and coming from the north tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. For these reasons today’s pollination will be significant with moderate expectations for pollen shed tomorrow. Tomorrow conditions will be hampered by an increased chance of precipitation and calming winds. Significant amounts of pollen should be expected in and around the tree populations and downwind today in (Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Arkansas, and Missouri).

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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