The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 12 – TX/OK: After a couple of warm days, the region will see changing weather again as a cold front moves southeast. Temperatures in Oklahoma and north Texas are already dropping and will continue to drop throughout the day. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s and will continue to drop into the 20s. Winds will be from 10 to 20 mph from the north. Areas of rain will likely spread north of the front across much of eastern Oklahoma during Saturday afternoon. Precipitation is expected to transition to a wintry mix Saturday evening across the northeast part of the state. Much colder conditions are expected behind the front Sunday and Monday with temperatures in the 30s with partly cloudy skies and moderate northerly winds. In Texas the front will slowly move across the state later on Saturday. As a result temperatures in Texas will teach into the 60s in the north and 70s in the south. Rain is possible throughout the region with a chance of thunderstorms in some areas. Winds will shift during the day from southerly to northerly winds and temperatures will drop into the 30s to low 40s Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will be cooler with highs in the 40s and 50s and winds from the north with partly cloudy skies.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move south on moderate to strong northerly winds associated with the cold front pushing through the region today. Temperatures will be dropping into the 40s this afternoon with a chance of rain today. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will remain from the north at moderate levels.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release early today but becoming poor and poor conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today. Skies will be cloudy today with dropping temperatures. Any pollen release occurring this morning and early afternoon will be moving south. Conditions are poor for entrainment as trajectories travel near ground level, suggesting that most of the pollen will remain close to the source area. Tomorrow will bring temperatures in southern Oklahoma into the upper 30s which are below the optimum for pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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