The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 14 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be cold as the entire area will be under a northeasterly flow at light to moderate conditions. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 40’s in Texas and into the upper 30’s in Oklahoma. Most of the skies will be partly cloudy except for the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area southward towards the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Although sunny and partly sunny conditions will occur the cold temperatures remain across the region. Tonight, partly cloudy skies will remain to the north with partly cloudy skies building to mostly cloudy conditions across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Tonight the region will drop into the 20’s, except for the areas along the southern most Edwards Plateau where they will try to stay in the low 30’s. Winds will maintain themselves coming from the northeast at light levels. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will remain to the north and mostly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. High temperatures will once again remain in the mid to lower 40’s throughout the region with winds building back to moderate conditions from the northeast. Tomorrow night the north, in Oklahoma, will be mostly clear whereas to the south across Texas mostly cloudy skies will build in. Low temperatures will return back into the mid to lower 20’s on the Edwards Plateau and the lower 30’s to the upper 20’s in the surrounding communities. In Oklahoma low temperatures are expected to drop into the teens with clear, cold conditions. Winds will remain from the northeast at light to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southwest on northeasterly breezes today, tonight and tomorrow. The winds will move the trajectory towards west Texas where swirling conditions will cause the air masses to stagnate. The cold atmosphere will interact becoming warmer and more buoyant as the overall trough of cold air begins to push east. However, winds will remain from the northeast over the entire forecast period and cold conditions are expected during the day and very cold conditions at night. On Monday and Tuesday, conditions warmer than the upper 40’s will be hard to find anywhere across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Cold conditions will occur today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Skies will be mostly cloudy across the region. The exception will be in Oklahoma where less cloud cover will occur but that will bring on colder night time temperatures. There is a moderate threat for pollen release today and tomorrow. Conditions are not particularly good, and we usually find cold conditions constrain any pollen release. However, we are in the middle of the period with the heaviest pollen release and therefore there may be limited pollen that is released. We do not expect there to be significant entrainment nor significant amount travelling downwind. The moderate threat is mostly in the areas with substantial numbers of trees. Those living in and around the tree populations may receive significant exposure. Significant amounts of pollen is expected in and around these areas (San Antonio, Austin, Waco, The Edwards Plateau), as well as northward (Arbuckle Mountains of Oklahoma).

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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