The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to be cool with highest temperatures today in the mid 40’s. In Oklahoma, central portions of the state will only rise to the mid 30’s whereas the lower 40’s are expected along the border with Texas and southward towards Dallas/Fort Worth. In the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area there will be a 20% chance of rain and sleet in the morning. A similar chance of precipitation will extend southward along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau past Austin. High Temperatures will be in the low 40s across the region and winds will be at 10 to 15 mph from the north. On the Edwards Plateau high temperatures will be in the low 40’s to upper 30’s. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will remain tonight with all areas dropping below freezing. The Plateau will be in the mid to low 20’s. In the surrounding areas low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20’s and just crossing the 30 degree mark. A 20% chance of rain and/or sleet will occur in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau tonight. Winds will remain from the north at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow sunny skies and warmer conditions will occur in southern to central Oklahoma. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50’s. Winds will be lite and variable along the border region and from the west at 10 mph in central Oklahoma. To the south temperatures will once again struggle to get into the upper 40’s across Texas. There will be a continuing chance of sleet and rain in and around Austin. The winds will be from the north and northwest across the region. Tomorrow night low temperatures warm by about 5 degrees with most areas in the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Winds will remain lite from the northwest.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move south across the border with Texas east of Dallas and onward towards the Gulf of Mexico. Lite to moderate winds will move the air across Texas over the next 24 to 48 hours. The air will be relatively stable and thus move at or near the ground level along its pathway. Cold conditions with high temperatures in the 30’s and low 40’s will provide poor conditions for pollination. Pollination conditions will increase tomorrow as the high temperatures are expected to climb into the low 50’s in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will decline to lit and variable conditions tomorrow and tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Cold conditions today with high temperatures expected to be only in the upper 30’s and low 40’s. The sky will be partly cloudy and winds will be from the north at 10 mph. Partly cloudy conditions will continue tonight with temperatures falling into the low 20’s. Winds tonight will be light and variable. The air will be cold today and thus dense so the winds will move near the ground along the trajectory. There will be a poor chance of entrainment and thus travel and with the cold conditions little pollen is expected to be released. Tomorrow the temperatures will warm but light and variable winds will reduce and dispersal from the immediate areas around the tree populations. For these reasons we are forecasting a low threat of pollen dispersal from the Arbuckle Mountain population.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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