The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 16 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will begin to warm for today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will dominate from Oklahoma southward except for the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the 50’s in most areas, lower 50’s north and on the Plateau, with mid 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be lite and variable to the north with increasing wind strength from the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio across the Edwards Plateau. Most of those communities will see winds at moderate strengths with conditions become strong on the Edwards Plateau during the afternoon. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts in the 25 mph strength will be common during the afternoon. Winds will be from the west early switching and coming out of the northwest later in the day. Tonight the region will be mostly clear. Low temperatures will be in the low 30’s in most localities. On the western most portion of the Edwards Plateau nighttime reading in the upper 20’s are expected. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 15 mph across the region. Tomorrow sunny skies will greet the day with mostly sunny conditions on the Edwards Plateau. Daytime temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees. On the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the mid 50’s in most places. Winds will switch back coming from the north at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will occur with temperatures in the upper 20’s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low 30’s in the edge communities and northward into Oklahoma. Winds will remain from the north except for the Edwards Plateau where winds will switch, coming from the southeast to east.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move eastward towards southwest Arkansas, then turn southward into Louisiana. The winds are dense cool air from the north, thus the trajectories show movement near or at ground level for most of the travel. The winds will be lite to moderate today and tonight while the winds come from the northwest. Tomorrow a northerly flow begins once again during the day and into the evening. Temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s with mostly sunny skies. Pollen is expected to be released however dense air will move the pollen at ground level where it has a greater potential to be removed from deposition and impaction on other vegetation.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions today with high temperatures expected to be just in the 50’s. Winds will be lite especially across the Arbuckle Mountains and southern Oklahoma. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow sunny skies and temperatures a few degrees warmer are expected. Winds will build from today’s calm winds but still be lite to moderate coming from the north. Conditions will be good to excellent for pollen release over the next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathway (east then southeast from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east over Southwest Arkansas into northern Louisiana). The winds are cold and thus dense moving at or near ground level thus much of the pollen will be removed from the airstream as it travels.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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