The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 16 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will begin to warm for today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will dominate from Oklahoma southward except for the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the 50’s in most areas, lower 50’s north and on the Plateau, with mid 50’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be lite and variable to the north with increasing wind strength from the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio across the Edwards Plateau. Most of those communities will see winds at moderate strengths with conditions become strong on the Edwards Plateau during the afternoon. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts in the 25 mph strength will be common during the afternoon. Winds will be from the west early switching and coming out of the northwest later in the day. Tonight the region will be mostly clear. Low temperatures will be in the low 30’s in most localities. On the western most portion of the Edwards Plateau nighttime reading in the upper 20’s are expected. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 15 mph across the region. Tomorrow sunny skies will greet the day with mostly sunny conditions on the Edwards Plateau. Daytime temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees. On the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the mid 50’s in most places. Winds will switch back coming from the north at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will occur with temperatures in the upper 20’s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low 30’s in the edge communities and northward into Oklahoma. Winds will remain from the north except for the Edwards Plateau where winds will switch, coming from the southeast to east.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico. The trajectories will cross over much of the coastal region from approximately Corpus Christie to Houston, Texas. The winds will be lite to moderate today and tonight while the winds come from the northwest. Tomorrow a northerly flow begins once again during the day and into the evening. Tomorrow night the northerly winds will remain across Texas except for the Edwards Plateau where a more southeasterly wind will take over. Temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s with mostly sunny skies.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate to strong, especially across the Edwards Plateau. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and for all areas except the Edwards Plateau tomorrow. Tomorrow sunny skies and temperatures about 5 degrees warmer are expected. Winds will calm from today’s winds but still be moderate and coming from the north. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low 30’s in the surrounding communities and 20’s on the Edwards Plateau will occur. Winds will remain from the north except from the Edwards Plateau where they will be from the southeast. Conditions will be good to excellent for pollen release over the next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathway (southeast from the Edwards Plateau over and area between Corpus Christi to Houston). The winds are cold and thus dense moving at or near ground level. With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and move towards the Gulf of Mexico. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow as well, but a more northerly direction will shift the trajectories towards south and southwest Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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