The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 17 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 17 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be seasonally nice today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will be widespread
with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s in southern Oklahoma
rising into the mid 50’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 50’s to low 60’s in the surrounding edge communities.
Winds today will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be in
the upper 20’s in southern Oklahoma and mid 20’s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will
drop into the mid 30’s. winds will start from the north but shift towards the southeast as the night progresses.
The Edge communities will remain with the dominant northerly to northeasterly flow during this change. Tomorrow
mostly sunny to sunny skies return. High temperatures will be in the 50’s across the region. In southern Oklahoma
and across the Edwards Plateau winds will remain from the south. In the edge communities and northwards towards
Dallas a northeasterly breeze will dominate but at light levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain
with temperatures at 30 or just above. Winds across the region will be from the south or on the western Plateau
from the southwest. All locations will see light wind conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move southward on 10 to 15 mph winds
starting from the north. Over the forecast period those winds will die to very lite levels and eventually switch
to a southerly flow. As this happens the trajectories circle clockwise into Texas towards the Dallas/Fort Worth
metro area, then back north to the west of their origination. Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures
in the 50’s and lite winds but with a dense atmosphere that will travel near the ground as the winds move. These
conditions results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment but poor conditions for long distance travel.
Area to the south and west of the Arbuckle Mountains will see the bulk of the pollen dispersed. Overall, temperatures
today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s with mostly sunny skies and lite winds.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions
today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate decreasing to lite conditions
across the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will calm from moderate to lite conditions as they come from the north today
but then rotate eventually coming from the south tomorrow. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the
next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant
amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (south from the Arbuckle Mountains and eventually northward to
the west of the area of origination). With the warming conditions pollen should be released and be entrained into
the atmosphere, however lite winds and a dense atmosphere will slow the movement keeping most of the pollen fairly
close to the Arbuckle Mountains.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page