The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 17 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 17 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be seasonally nice today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will be widespread
with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s in southern Oklahoma
rising into the mid 50’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 50’s to low 60’s in the surrounding edge communities.
Winds today will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be
in the upper 20’s in southern Oklahoma and mid 20’s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will
drop into the mid 30’s. winds will start from the north but shift towards the southeast as the night progresses.
The Edge communities will remain with the dominant northerly to northeasterly flow during this change. Tomorrow
mostly sunny to sunny skies return. High temperatures will be in the 50’s across the region. In southern Oklahoma
and across the Edwards Plateau winds will remain from the south. In the edge communities and northwards towards
Dallas a northeasterly breeze will dominate but at light levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain
with temperatures at 30 or just above. Winds across the region will be from the south or on the western Plateau
from the southwest. All locations will see light wind conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward on 10 to 15 mph winds
starting from the north. Over the forecast period those winds will switch to the northeast then east and finally
from the south. As this happens the trajectories circle clockwise off of the Plateau towards the southwest, then
back north over the central Panhandle of Texas. Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures in the 50’s
and lite winds but with a buoyant atmosphere results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel.
Area to the south and west of the Edwards Plateau will see the bulk of the pollen dispersed. Overall, temperatures
today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s with mostly sunny skies and lite winds.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions
today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate decreasing to lite conditions
across the Edwards Plateau. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and tomorrow. Winds will calm from moderate
to lite conditions as they come from the north today but then rotate eventually coming from the south tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid 30’s in the surrounding communities
and low 30’s on the Edwards Plateau will occur. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next two days.
Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts
of pollen along the trajectory pathways (southwest from the Edwards Plateau and eventually northward over the Panhandle
of Texas). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere,
however lite winds will slow the movement keeping most of the pollen within the state.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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