The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 17 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonally nice today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will be widespread with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s in southern Oklahoma rising into the mid 50’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 50’s to low 60’s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds today will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be in the upper 20’s in southern Oklahoma and mid 20’s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will drop into the mid 30’s. winds will start from the north but shift towards the southeast as the night progresses. The Edge communities will remain with the dominant northerly to northeasterly flow during this change. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies return. High temperatures will be in the 50’s across the region. In southern Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau winds will remain from the south. In the edge communities and northwards towards Dallas a northeasterly breeze will dominate but at light levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain with temperatures at 30 or just above. Winds across the region will be from the south or on the western Plateau from the southwest. All locations will see light wind conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward on 10 to 15 mph winds starting from the north. Over the forecast period those winds will switch to the northeast then east and finally from the south. As this happens the trajectories circle clockwise off of the Plateau towards the southwest, then back north over the central Panhandle of Texas. Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures in the 50’s and lite winds but with a buoyant atmosphere results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Area to the south and west of the Edwards Plateau will see the bulk of the pollen dispersed. Overall, temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s with mostly sunny skies and lite winds.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate decreasing to lite conditions across the Edwards Plateau. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and tomorrow. Winds will calm from moderate to lite conditions as they come from the north today but then rotate eventually coming from the south tomorrow afternoon and evening. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies and temperatures in the mid 30’s in the surrounding communities and low 30’s on the Edwards Plateau will occur. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (southwest from the Edwards Plateau and eventually northward over the Panhandle of Texas). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, however lite winds will slow the movement keeping most of the pollen within the state.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page