The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Jan. 18 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonally nice today and tomorrow. Today sunny skies will be widespread with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the low 50’s in southern Oklahoma rising into the mid 50’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 50’s to low 60’s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds today will be from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight clear skies will prevail and temperatures will be in the upper 20’s in southern Oklahoma and mid 20’s across the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities lows will drop into the mid 30’s. winds will start from the north but shift towards the southeast as the night progresses. The Edge communities will remain with the dominant northerly to northeasterly flow during this change. Tomorrow mostly sunny to sunny skies return. High temperatures will be in the 50’s across the region. In southern Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau winds will remain from the south. In the edge communities and northwards towards Dallas a northeasterly breeze will dominate but at light levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain with temperatures at 30 or just above. Winds across the region will be from the south or on the western Plateau from the southwest. All locations will see light wind conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate winds from the south. the trajectories will move to the north-northwest across eastern Oklahoma and into Missouri Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures in the mid 50’s today and low 60’s tomorrow and lite winds from the south and southwest over the forecast period. These conditions results in good conditions for pollen release, but a dense stable atmosphere may constrain entrainment and long distance travel. Overall, temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 50’s today and 60’s tomorrow with sunny skies and lite to moderate winds from the south and southwest.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Warming conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50’s. Winds will be moderate today and tonight across the pollen source area. Winds will remain moderate today, tonight into tomorrow from the south moving overnight to a more southwesterly flow. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (north from the Arbuckle Mountains across eastern Oklahoma and northward into Missouri impacting Tulsa, northeast Arkansas and Missouri. Pollen may potentially impact the St. Louis regional area). With the warming conditions pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, however a stable atmosphere will slow the movement keeping most of the pollen at risk of impacting vegetation and being knocked out of the air stream.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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