The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 19 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the 60’s. Sunny skies will be widespread with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s in southern Oklahoma rising into the mid to upper 60’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Winds today will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph in most areas. Winds in the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will be slightly strong at 5 to 15 mph. Most areas will see a flow from the south. Tonight clear skies will prevail across Oklahoma, mostly clear skies over the Edwards Plateau and partly cloudy conditions in the edge communities. The edge communities will develop patchy fog that will stick around until tomorrow morning. Low temperatures will remain above freezing but most areas will be in the 30’s, except for the edge communities and the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area where they will remain in the 40’s. Tomorrow mostly sunny condition on the Plateau and across the edge communities will occur. To the north sunny conditions will prevail. Temperatures will return to the 60’s with most areas seeing slightly warmer conditions. San Antonio should reach into the 70’s in the afternoon. Winds will be from the southwest and 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with nighttime temperatures falling into the mid to low 30’s, on the Plateau, and into the mid 40’s, in the surrounding communities. Winds will begin to turn with western areas of the Edwards Plateau seeing winds from the northwest once again move into the area..

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate winds and then swirl back around in eastern central Oklahoma and Arkansas. Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures in the 60’s and moderate winds lightening are expected today into tomorrow. The air is not particularly buoyant but the warm conditions will help mix the atmosphere and results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Overall, temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 60’s and provide good conditions with sunny skies. Tomorrow night an incursion of cold air from the north will bring strong winds to the Arbuckle Mountain region, expect winds from the north at 20 to 30 miles per hour
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OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warming conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s Winds will be moderate today and tonight across the pollen source area. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways. With the warming conditions pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, however a stable atmosphere will slow the movement keeping most of the pollen at risk of impacting vegetation and being knocked out of the air stream.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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