The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
High |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 19 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Saturday, January 19 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will be warming today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the 60’s. Sunny skies
will be widespread with mostly sunny conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the upper 60’s
in southern Oklahoma rising into the mid to upper 60’s over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities.
Winds today will be from the south at 5 to 15 mph in most areas. Winds in the western portions of the Edwards Plateau
will be slightly strong at 5 to 15 mph. Most areas will see a flow from the south. Tonight clear skies will prevail
across Oklahoma, mostly clear skies over the Edwards Plateau and partly cloudy conditions in the edge communities.
The edge communities will develop patchy fog that will stick around until tomorrow morning. Low temperatures will
remain above freezing but most areas will be in the 30’s, except for the edge communities and the Dallas/Fort Worth
metro area where they will remain in the 40’s. Tomorrow mostly sunny condition on the Plateau and across the edge
communities will occur. To the north sunny conditions will prevail. Temperatures will return to the 60’s with most
areas seeing slightly warmer conditions. San Antonio should reach into the 70’s in the afternoon. Winds will be
from the southwest and 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with nighttime temperatures
falling into the mid to low 30’s, on the Plateau, and into the mid 40’s, in the surrounding communities. Winds
will begin to turn with western areas of the Edwards Plateau seeing winds from the northwest once again move into
the area.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward and then turn back around
to central Texas on moderate winds. Good conditions for pollen release with temperatures in the 60’s and moderate
winds lightening are expected today into tomorrow. The air is not particularly buoyant but the warm conditions
will help mix the atmosphere and results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Overall,
temperatures today and tomorrow will warm into the 60’s and provide good conditions with sunny skies.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warm conditions today
with high temperatures expected to be in the 60’s region wide. Winds will be lite to moderate conditions across
the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and tomorrow. Winds will hold steady
coming from the south to southwest today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next
two days. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant
amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (north from the Edwards Plateau over north Texas, eastern Oklahoma,
northwestern Arkansas, and into Missouri). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and
be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting those areas northward along the trajectory pathway.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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