The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will remain warm today and cooling a bit tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 60’s today and 50’s to 60’s tomorrow. Sunny skies will be widespread across the region with lite winds from the southwest. Temperatures today will be near 70 in the edge communities and in the upper 60’s across the plateau. Oklahoma will enjoy the 60’s as will with Oklahoma city slated for the low 60’s and mid 60’s in the Arbuckle Mountains. Tonight the edge communities will be come partly cloudy with fog developing after midnight and into tomorrow morning. The rest of the area will enjoy clear to mostly clear skies tonight and temperatures in Texas in the mid 30’s to mid 40’s. In Oklahoma, temperatures will be near or below freezing. Winds will be from the southerly directions at lite conditions to begin with. During the evening stronger winds will come into the area from the north. Much stronger winds are expected in the areas from the Dallas/Fort Worth area into Oklahoma, as well as beginning on the far western areas of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow sunny and party sunny skies will occur except on the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will build. Temperatures will be cooler by up to 10 degrees and a dominant wind change with the flow moving from the north over the area. Winds will build with moderate conditions. Tomorrow night, the skies over Texas will become partly to mostly cloudy. Oklahoma will remain clear. Temperatures will be seasonal, in the 30’s on Edwards Plateau and low 40’s in the surrounding communities. Oklahoma will return to the mid to upper 20’s. Winds will remain from the north and northeast at lite levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains initially move northward on lite and variable winds. Tonight a northerly flow takes over and they will then move over Texas and join swirling winds to the south. Tomorrow the flow will be predominantly from the northeast, moving any pollen in the atmosphere towards central Texas. Temperatures today will warm into the low to mid 60’s. Tomorrow, cooler conditions will occur with the high temperature struggling to get to 50. The winds will remain lite and variable today then tomorrow will be dominated by the regional northeasterly flow. Tomorrow night seasonal temperatures in Oklahoma will return to below freezing conditions, in the 20’s. The air will be buoyant with the warm conditions that will help mix the atmosphere and results in good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel today. Conditions will degrade tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Warm conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 60’s in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will be lite and variable today, then increasing overnight as a northerly flow comes into the area. Tomorrow moderate winds return from the northeast. Sunny skies will prevail today tonight and tomorrow. Winds will move northwards today, then the trajectories will reverse and head southward as the northeasterly winds move into the area. Tomorrow the northerly flow will become dominant. Conditions will be good for pollen release today degrading on cold air tomorrow. Warm conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (pollen will move north over the Arbuckle Mountains and then move southward as the northeasterly flow resumes. Pollen release today may eventually impact northern Texas, Dallas/Fort Worth metro area). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, eventually impacting areas across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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