The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

High

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Monday, January 21 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will rise to the 50’s and 60’s today with a dominant wind flow from the northeast. Areas from Dallas/Fort Worth southward to the edge communities’ morning fog will be common. In Oklahoma high temperatures will be in the 40’s but with sunny skies, winds will be brisk (10 to 20 mph). To the south in Texas, the edge communities will reach into the mid to upper 60’s and the Edwards Plateau will be in the lower 50’s to the west and closer to 60 in the central portion of the Plateau. Tonight Oklahoma will remain clear, but southward mostly cloudy skies will dominate. Low temperatures will remain above freezing with the Plateau in the mid to upper 30’s and the edge communities’ in the mid 40’s. Winds in Oklahoma will fall to lite and variable conditions. Across Texas winds in the edge communities will remain from the northeast at lite conditions. On the Plateau winds will be from the south and southeast. Tomorrow sunny skies will occur to the north with temperatures in the 50’s. Winds will be lite from the south. Across Texas cloudy conditions will build from mostly sunny conditions in Dallas/Fort Worth to mostly cloudy thinning to partly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures will rise to the mid 60’s in most areas. Winds will start from the northeast at lite levels in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The southern edge communities as well as on the Edwards Plateau winds will switch, coming from the south. Winds will be lite to moderate. Tomorrow night clouds will build region wide with partly cloudy conditions thickening overnight. Winds will be lite to moderate from the south. Low temperatures will fall only into the mid-40’s over the Plateau and near 50 in the surrounding communities.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau are mixed with areas to the north moving initially southwest on lite northeast breezes, then turning back northward as winds from the southeast take over. The trajectories across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau will move more northerly. The trajectories show that the lite wind conditions will tend to swirl the atmosphere over central Texas. With warm conditions the air will be buoyant and thus pollen that is released should be entrained and move with the winds. Tonight, winds will begin to switch to a southeasterly direction and as it occurs greater amounts of humidity will come into the region. Tomorrow, sunny conditions will remain to the north from Oklahoma into the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area. Over Texas, mostly cloudy conditions will begin the day changing to partly cloudy into the late afternoon. Temperatures will warm a bit with high’s expected across the Edwards Plateau in the mid 60’s region wide. Winds will be from the south at lite levels. Tomorrow night clouds will thicken back to mostly cloudy conditions. The low temperatures will be mild with southerly winds moving across the region. Lows will be in the mid 40’s across the plateau and near 50 in the surrounding communities.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Mild conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 50’s and 60’s region wide. Winds will be lite to moderate. Sunny skies and partly sunny skies will prevail today to the north and in the surrounding communities. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the central Texas region. Tonight and tomorrow mostly cloudy skies will dominate the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be mixed shifting over the forecast period in between today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for pollen release over the next two days. Warm conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (across from the Edwards Plateau and swirling over the population and eastern Texas, as the northeasterly wind gives way to a more southerly flow). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across Texas.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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