The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 22 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 22 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will show increasing cloudiness today especially over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. To the north in the Dallas/Fort Worth area into Oklahoma mostly sunny skies will occur. In the area of the eastern Plateau and the surrounding communities from Austin to San Antonio, mostly cloudy skies will occur. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and in the 60s across Texas. Winds across the area will be moderate from the south except in the edge communities where initially a northeast flow will occur. This afternoon the northeasterly winds will give way to a more southeasterly flow. Overnight the southerly flow will bring warm temperatures into the area with the Plateau in the mid 40s for the low and the mid 50s in the surrounding communities. Winds will remain from the south at lite to moderate conditions. In southern Oklahoma temperatures will be in the low 40s to high 30s with lite and variable winds over the Arbuckle Mountains. Tomorrow the Edward Plateau communities will see partly cloudy conditions giving way to clear skies during the day. The areas surrounding the Plateau will be partly sunny. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 70s with moderate winds from the south and southwest. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s northward into southern Oklahoma. The southerly flow will dominate tomorrow into tomorrow night. Skies will be partly cloudy across the region with mostly clear skies in Oklahoma. Temepratures will be mild overnight with most of the Edwards Plateau in the upper to mid 40s, the surrounding communities north to southern Oklahoma in the mid to low 50s. Winds will remain from the south to southwest at lite to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move north to northeasterly on the south to southwesterly flow across the state. The trajectories chart a path to the north-northeast towards Tulsa. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s and tomorrow in the upper 60s creating very good conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. The trajectories show lite winds today calming to lite and variable conditions tonight. Tomorrow, winds will build somewhat but maintain the southerly flow. With warm conditions the air will be buoyant and thus pollen that is released should be entrained and move with the winds. Tomorrow night skies will be mostly clear and temperatures ill drop into the low 50s.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warm conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 50s today and upper 60s tomorrow. Winds will be lite then relax towards the evening. Sunny skies and mostly sunny skies will prevail today. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will build with partly cloudy conditions tomorrow. A chance of fog is possible both tonight and tomorrow morning. Tonight temperatures will drop into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow expected to come close to 70 degrees. Conditions will be good for pollen release both today and tomorrow. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in a good chance of pollen along the trajectory pathways both today and tomorrow. With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across eastern Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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