The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
High |
Tulsa |
Very High |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 23 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 23 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will show increasing cloudiness today especially over the Edwards Plateau and in
the surrounding communities. This morning patchy fog was expected across the region. Sunny skies will break through
from central Oklahoma southward towards the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Over the Edwards
Plateau mostly to partly cloudy conditions will begin the day becoming clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will
be warm with almost the entire region expected to be in the mid to upper 70’s. Winds will be from the south starting
at lite levels this morning building to moderate and moderately strong conditions this afternoon. Winds will be
from the south. Overnight mostly clear conditions will remain expect for the surrounding communities where dense
fog will build in. The Edwards Plateau today will see patchy fog conditions. Low temperatures will be mild with
most areas in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. To the north of the Arbuckle Mountains a chance of rain will begin to
develop tomorrow (20% chance). Skies to the north will be partly cloudy with Oklahoma City reaching to get into
the upper 30’s but to the south in the Arbuckle Mountains the low 50’s are expected. Winds will be from the northeast
at lite to moderate conditions. To the south mostly sunny going to partly sunny conditions will occur from the
Dallas/Fort Worth area southward through the communities that occur along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. The
Edwards Plateau will remain partly cloudy. Temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be very warm with high’s expected
in the upper 70’s today. In the edge communities high temperatures will reach into the mid 70’s. Winds will be
from the south and southwest at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night across Texas, partly to mostly cloudy
conditions will return. There is a chance of dense fog and drizzle in and around edge communities. Temperatures
will fall back into the 50’s and 40’s on the Plateau similar to tonight’s low temperatures. Winds will remain
from the south at lite conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on the southern to
southwestern flow across Texas. In the area of northern Texas along the border with Oklahoma the trajectories
begin to interact with the systems to the north. The winds will begin from the south at lite levels but will switch
to a northeasterly flow overnight and tomorrow. Today temperatures will reach into the 70’s but with the change
of wind direction tonight, tomorrow will only reach into the low 50’s. Tomorrow there is a 20% chance of rain
and drizzle to the north in Oklahoma City. Tomorrow night low temperatures will continue to fall with the Arbuckle
Mountain region expected in the mid to low 30’s.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warm conditions today
with high temperatures expected to be in the low 70’s. Winds will be lite and build overnight as the wind direction
switches to northeasterly flow. With the change in wind direction partly cloudy conditions will begin to build
with a 20% chance of drizzle and rain to the north in Oklahoma City. Tonight temperatures will drop into the
lower 40’s with high’s tomorrow expected to only reach to 50 degrees. Conditions will be good for pollen release
both today, declining as colder temperatures enter into the area. Warming conditions and being in the middle of
the historical pollen season should result in a very good chance of pollen along the trajectory pathways both today,
then declining tomorrow. With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into
the atmosphere, impacting areas across central and eastern Oklahoma.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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