The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City



Very High

St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 23 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 23 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will show increasing cloudiness today especially over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. This morning patchy fog was expected across the region. Sunny skies will break through from central Oklahoma southward towards the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Over the Edwards Plateau mostly to partly cloudy conditions will begin the day becoming clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm with almost the entire region expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be from the south starting at lite levels this morning building to moderate and moderately strong conditions this afternoon. Winds will be from the south. Overnight mostly clear conditions will remain expect for the surrounding communities where dense fog will build in. The Edwards Plateau today will see patchy fog conditions. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas in the upper 40s to mid 50s. To the north of the Arbuckle Mountains a chance of rain will begin to develop tomorrow (20% chance). Skies to the north will be partly cloudy with Oklahoma City reaching to get into the upper 30s but to the south in the Arbuckle Mountains the low 50s are expected. Winds will be from the northeast at lite to moderate conditions. To the south mostly sunny going to partly sunny conditions will occur from the Dallas/Fort Worth area southward through the communities that occur along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. The Edwards Plateau will remain partly cloudy. Temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be very warm with highs expected in the upper 70s today. In the edge communities high temperatures will reach into the mid 70s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night across Texas, partly to mostly cloudy conditions will return. There is a chance of dense fog and drizzle in and around edge communities. Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 40s on the Plateau similar to tonights low temperatures. Winds will remain from the south at lite conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on the southern to southwestern flow across Texas. In the area of northern Texas along the border with Oklahoma the trajectories begin to interact with the systems to the north. The winds will begin from the south at lite levels but will switch to a northeasterly flow overnight and tomorrow. Today temperatures will reach into the 70s but with the change of wind direction tonight, tomorrow will only reach into the low 50s. Tomorrow there is a 20% chance of rain and drizzle to the north in Oklahoma City. Tomorrow night low temperatures will continue to fall with the Arbuckle Mountain region expected in the mid to low 30s.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Warm conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the low 70s. Winds will be lite and build overnight as the wind direction switches to northeasterly flow. With the change in wind direction partly cloudy conditions will begin to build with a 20% chance of drizzle and rain to the north in Oklahoma City. Tonight temperatures will drop into the lower 40s with highs tomorrow expected to only reach to 50 degrees. Conditions will be good for pollen release both today, declining as colder temperatures enter into the area. Warming conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in a very good chance of pollen along the trajectory pathways both today, then declining tomorrow. With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across central and eastern Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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