The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 23 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will show increasing cloudiness today especially over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. This morning patchy fog was expected across the region. Sunny skies will break through from central Oklahoma southward towards the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Over the Edwards Plateau mostly to partly cloudy conditions will begin the day becoming clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm with almost the entire region expected to be in the mid to upper 70’s. Winds will be from the south starting at lite levels this morning building to moderate and moderately strong conditions this afternoon. Winds will be from the south. Overnight mostly clear conditions will remain expect for the surrounding communities where dense fog will build in. The Edwards Plateau today will see patchy fog conditions. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s. To the north of the Arbuckle Mountains a chance of rain will begin to develop tomorrow (20% chance). Skies to the north will be partly cloudy with Oklahoma City reaching to get into the upper 30’s but to the south in the Arbuckle Mountains the low 50’s are expected. Winds will be from the northeast at lite to moderate conditions. To the south mostly sunny going to partly sunny conditions will occur from the Dallas/Fort Worth area southward through the communities that occur along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. The Edwards Plateau will remain partly cloudy. Temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be very warm with high’s expected in the upper 70’s today. In the edge communities high temperatures will reach into the mid 70’s. Winds will be from the south and southwest at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow night across Texas, partly to mostly cloudy conditions will return. There is a chance of dense fog and drizzle in and around edge communities. Temperatures will fall back into the 50’s and 40’s on the Plateau similar to tonight’s low temperatures. Winds will remain from the south at lite conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northward on the southern to southwestern flow across the state. In the area of northern Texas along the border with Oklahoma the trajectories begin to interact with a system moving to the east north of the border area. From the release area the winds will be lite to begin with and the air will move close to the ground. As the system to the north interacts with the air over northern Texas it will become more buoyant and able to hold and transport pollen. The trajectories show that the lite to moderate wind conditions will tend to move the atmosphere northward and then become a more concentrated path towards the east with entrainment as the air mixes. Overnight mild low’s with most areas in the upper 40’s and mid 50’s with occur with mild winds continuing from the south to southwest. Tomorrow warm conditions return and the dominant southwesterly flow will remain. Winds will be lite to moderate from the southwest. Tomorrow night will mimic tonight in terms of the low temperatures and the lite southerly flow.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Mild conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the 70’s region wide. Winds will be lite to moderate. Mostly cloudy skies giving way to partly cloudy skies will characterize the area today on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities with mostly sunny to sunny skies in the surrounding areas. Tonight cloudy skies will build as moisture is pulled in on the dominate southerly winds. Conditions will be very good for pollen release over the next two days. The air will stable across most of the area but to the north where the trajectories encounter the systems moving east it will become more buoyant and very good for maintaining entrainment. Warm conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (north from the Edwards Plateau across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region and then moving eastward into eastern Oklahoma and across Arkansas. Some pollen may make it as far west as the Tulsa metro region). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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