The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 24 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be partly sunny to the north and in the surrounding communities of the Edwards Plateau. The Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy in areas early. The potential for foggy conditions will develop overnight and many areas will be partly foggy in the morning before burning off. Temperatures across Texas will return back into the upper 70’s across the region with southerly winds at lite to moderate levels. Tonight, partly cloudy conditions return with the low temperatures in the upper 30’s in southern Oklahoma and in the 40’s in northern Texas and across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities low temperatures will fall into the upper 50’s. Winds will be from the south in most areas, except across the Edwards Plateau where an easterly wind will be dominant. Winds will remain lite overnight. Tomorrow temperatures cool by at least 10 to 15 degrees across the Edward Plateau into the mid to lower 60’s. To the north, in the Dallas/Fort Worth region and northward into southern Oklahoma, temperatures will cool into the mid 50’s. Winds in these northern regions will be from the north at lite conditions. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area winds will begin from the west but turn, coming from the north by noon. Over the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities warm conditions will return with highs in the 60’s over the Plateau and in the 70’s in the edge communities. The southerly flow will switch over becoming a more northerly flow during the day. Tomorrow night partly to mostly cloudy skies will build in to the area. Low temperatures will be in the 50’s in the edge communities but will drop into the 40’s and 30’s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the northeast at lite conditions. There will be a 20% chance of drizzle in the Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as the chance of isolated showers in Austin.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northeastward on the south and southwestern flow across the state. In the area of northern Texas along the border with Oklahoma the trajectories shift towards a more easterly flow taking the trajectories across southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas then further east. From the release area the winds will be lite to moderate and the air will start close to the ground but will gain buoyancy during the afternoon. Very warm conditions, the Edwards Plateau is expected to reach into the upper 70’s, should lead to the ripening and release of significant amounts of pollen today. Overnight mild low’s with most areas in the upper 40’s and mid 50’s will occur with mild winds continuing from the south to southwest. Tomorrow warm conditions, highs remaining in the upper 60’s and low 70’s, but a bit of cooling will occur as winds switch to a north easterly direction.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Mild conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the 70’s region wide. Winds will be lite to moderate. Partly cloudy skies will characterize the area today on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Tonight partly cloudy skies will build as moisture is pulled in on the dominate southerly winds. Conditions will be very good for pollen release over the next two days. Warm conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (north from the Edwards Plateau across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region and then moving eastward into southeastern Oklahoma and across Arkansas). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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