The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 25 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be partly cloudy except in the corridor from Dallas/Fort Worth southward along the edge of the Edwards Plateau where partly sunny conditions will occur. Oklahoma will be cool with high temperatures in the 50’s with lite northerly winds. Temperatures to the south will be warm with highs across the Edwards Plateau in the mid 70’s to the west and into the 80’s across the eastern Plateau region. In the surrounding edge communities, temperatures will be in the upper 70’s. Winds will be from the north at moderate conditions over the Edwards Plateau, but a southerly flow will occur in the surrounding edge communities. Tonight cloudy conditions will build with low temperatures mild in the edge communities, mid to upper 50’s, and cooler over the Edwards Plateau, upper 30’s to mid 40’s. To the north in Oklahoma low temperatures will be in the thirties but above the freezing level. To the south in Texas, winds will be lite from the north to northeast. Overnight a chance of fog and drizzle will build in the edge communities. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy conditions will occur across Oklahoma, and cloudy conditions will dominate to the south as well. The edge communities will continue to see patchy fog and drizzle in the morning. During the day temperatures will warm but cooling from today. High temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 60’s and in the low 70’s in the edge communities. Winds will move to a dominant flow from the east in the surrounding communities and from the southeast at moderate levels across the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night cloudy and mostly cloudy skies remain. Low temperatures across region will be in the 50’s with patchy fog and drizzle in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the southeast at lite levels and from the south at moderate levels over the Edwards Plateau. In southern Oklahoma there will be a 40% chance of rain with temperatures in the upper 40’s.

Trajectory Weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move northeastward on south to southwesterly flow across the state at 500 m. On the ground there will be an overall flow from the north to northeast as the air will be very bouyant. Very warm conditions will cause surface warming across the region acting to lift the atmosphere and drawing surface winds in from the north. The trajectories will move at 500 m towards the east over northeast Texas. Over the region, temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70’s today and even stretch to the 80’s in the central area of the Plateau. Tonight cloudy skies will move in and most areas will return to lite winds and seasonally mild low temperatures. Tomorrow temperatures will cool by 10 to 15 degrees over the Plateau, but will remain in the temperature range that pollen is released. The edge communities will start the day with the potential of patchy fog and drizzle. Winds will remain lite from the east except on the Plateau where a southeasterly flow will be lite to moderate. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 50’s across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Mild to warm conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the 70’s region wide, and approaching the 80’s on the Edwards Plateau. The strong heating will cause the winds to become lite and rise in the atmosphere resulting in buoyancy. Winds will be lite to moderate from the north to replace the rising air. Partly cloudy skies will characterize the area today on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Tonight partly cloudy skies will build as moisture is pulled in from clouds moving in from the southwest. Conditions will be very good for pollen release over the next two days. Warm conditions and being in the middle of the historical pollen season should result in significant amounts of pollen along the trajectory pathways (north from the Edwards Plateau across the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region and then moving eastward into northeast Texas). With the warming conditions significant pollen should be released and be entrained into the atmosphere, impacting areas across Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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