The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate to High



St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 26 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 26 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period. Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70s both today and tomorrow. Mostly cloudy conditions will occur across Oklahoma today, and mostly cloudy conditions will dominate to the south as well. The edge communities will continue to see patchy fog and drizzle in the morning. During the day temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s in the edge communities, and in the upper 60s into the low 70s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the east at lite conditions, except over the Plateau region where a dominant south to southeasterly flow will occur starting as lite winds building to moderate conditions this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will remain. To the north there will be a 40% to 20% chance of rain from the Oklahoma City area south towards the border with Texas. Southward in Texas patchy fog and drizzle are possible from the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region south to the edge communities. Overnight temperatures will be mild mostly in the 50s. Winds will be lite to moderate from the southeast. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy conditions will begin the day with a slight chance of rain in central Oklahoma and the return of patchy fog and drizzle to the south from the Dallas/Fort Worth area into the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures will bounce back into the 70s across the region. Winds will be lite to moderate from the south. Tomorrow night cloudy skies will remain with drizzle in the edge communities. Low temperatures will remain mild with lows only falling into the mid 50s to the mid 60s. The winds remain at lite to moderate levels from the south.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and onward over central Kansas and into eastern Nebraska region. The trajectories move at ground level with stable air conditions initially then will eventually become more buoyant to the north. Today the temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s across Texas warming into the 70s region wide tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s today but warm into the 60s tomorrow. Today the winds start from the southeast over the Edwards Plateau. The southeast flow will become dominant tonight and the strength of those winds will increase tonight into tomorrow becoming moderate. Moderate winds will remain tomorrow night. Both today and tomorrow nighttime moisture will occur with fog and drizzle in and around the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau southward in Texas. In Oklahoma the chance of precipitation will rise to 20% tomorrow night. The chance of fog in the Arbuckle Mountain region will increase tonight and tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night a 20% chance of rain returns.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Cool conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s in southern Oklahoma, although it will be much warmer to the south across Texas. Winds will be lite today building to moderate conditions tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Today, mostly cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and the chance of rain tonight and tomorrow night. Warm conditions across Texas and moderate winds will result in good conditions for pollen release both today and tomorrow to the south. In the Arbuckle Mountains moderate conditions today and tonight with stable air and higher levels of moisture results in a moderate chance of pollen release, entrainment and downwind movement. The air will be stable and any pollen achieving entrainment will move along the ground surface where impaction removes much of it from the air stream. That being said, we are in the middle of the historical pollen season thus it should result in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways especially from the Edwards Plateau to the south, moving northward over eastern Oklahoma both today and tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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