The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate to High |
Tulsa |
Moderate |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 26 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Saturday, January 26 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period.
Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70’s both today and tomorrow. Mostly
cloudy conditions will occur across Oklahoma today, and mostly cloudy conditions will dominate to the south as
well. The edge communities will continue to see patchy fog and drizzle in the morning. During the day temperatures
will warm into the mid 60’s to mid 70’s in the edge communities, and in the upper 60’s into the low 70’s across
the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the east at lite conditions, except over the Plateau region where a dominant
south to southeasterly flow will occur starting as lite winds building to moderate conditions this afternoon.
Tonight partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will remain. To the north there will be a 40% to 20% chance of rain
from the Oklahoma City area south towards the border with Texas. Southward in Texas patchy fog and drizzle are
possible from the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region south to the edge communities. Overnight temperatures will be
mild mostly in the 50’s. Winds will be lite to moderate from the southeast. Tomorrow, mostly cloudy conditions
will begin the day with a slight chance of rain in central Oklahoma and the return of patchy fog and drizzle to
the south from the Dallas/Fort Worth area into the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures
will bounce back into the 70’s across the region. Winds will be lite to moderate from the south. Tomorrow night
cloudy skies will remain with drizzle in the edge communities. Low temperatures will remain mild with lows only
falling into the mid 50’s to the mid 60’s. The winds remain at lite to moderate levels from the south.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma
and onward over central Kansas and into eastern Nebraska region. The trajectories move at ground level with stable
air conditions initially then will eventually become more buoyant to the north. Today the temperatures will be
in the 60’s and 70’s across Texas warming into the 70’s region wide tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will
be in the 40’s and 50’s today but warm into the 60’s tomorrow. Today the winds start from the southeast over the
Edwards Plateau. The southeast flow will become dominant tonight and the strength of those winds will increase
tonight into tomorrow becoming moderate. Moderate winds will remain tomorrow night. Both today and tomorrow nighttime
moisture will occur with fog and drizzle in and around the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau southward
in Texas. In Oklahoma the chance of precipitation will rise to 20% tomorrow night. The chance of fog in the Arbuckle
Mountain region will increase tonight and tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night a 20% chance of rain returns.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Cool conditions
today with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 50’s in southern Oklahoma, although it will be much warmer
to the south across Texas. Winds will be lite today building to moderate conditions tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow
night. Today, mostly cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and the chance
of rain tonight and tomorrow night. Warm conditions across Texas and moderate winds will result in good conditions
for pollen release both today and tomorrow to the south. In the Arbuckle Mountains moderate conditions today and
tonight with stable air and higher levels of moisture results in a moderate chance of pollen release, entrainment
and downwind movement. The air will be stable and any pollen achieving entrainment will move along the ground
surface where impaction removes much of it from the air stream. That being said, we are in the middle of the historical
pollen season thus it should result in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways especially
from the Edwards Plateau to the south, moving northward over eastern Oklahoma both today and tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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