The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 27 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period. Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70’s both today and tomorrow. Mostly cloudy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma today, and cloudy conditions will dominate to the south, except on the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will evolve during the day. Across Texas patchy fog will occur in the morning hours with a chance of drizzle and showers developing in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid-70’s across the region. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate conditions across Texas and reaching into strong conditions across Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain across the northern areas and cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be very mild with the mid to upper 50’s in Oklahoma, mid to lower 60’s in region from Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin and over to San Antonio. On the Edwards Plateau lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50’s. Winds will remain from the south at lite to moderate conditions. Tonight and tomorrow there is a 20% chance of precipitation over the Arbuckle Mountains and winds will be strong getting above 20 mile per hour. Tomorrow, fog and drizzle will occur in edge communities surrounding the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Both Austin and San Antonio will have a 20% chance of precipitation. Across the region high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70’s. Winds will maintain their southerly flow with many areas seeing moderately strong conditions. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions continue. From Oklahoma City southward around the Edwards Plateau edge there will be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of showers. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the low 60’s off of the Edwards Plateau and into the mid to upper 50’s on the Plateau. Winds will continue from the south at lite to moderate conditions

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and onward into eastern Kansas and then towards Missouri. The trajectories at ground level will be stable and move at their release elevation as they travel downwind. Today the temperatures will be in the upper 60’s across southern Oklahoma warming into the mid 70’s tomorrow. On both days, across the entire region including southern Oklahoma, there will be high level of moisture in the air resulting in morning fog and drizzle. Ardmore will have a 20% chance of showers tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. The moisture is being brought into the area on moderate to strong winds blowing from the south. The winds will decrease to lite to moderate conditions tonight and then into tomorrow and tomorrow night. There will be a 20% chance of showers tomorrow afternoon into the evening for the southern Oklahoma area.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Warm conditions today with high temperatures expected to be in the upper 60’s in southern Oklahoma, although it will be much warmer to the south across Texas. Winds will be moderate to strong today decreasing to moderate conditions tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Today, mostly cloudy skies will build over the region and high levels of moisture will result in patchy fog and the chance of rain tonight tomorrow and tomorrow night. Warm conditions but with high levels of humidity will result in poor to moderate conditions for pollen release both today and tomorrow. Moderate conditions today and tonight with stable air and high levels of moisture results in a moderate chance of pollen release and entrainment but with the wet conditions there will be poor conditions for downwind movement. The air will be stable and any pollen achieving entrainment will move along the ground surface where impaction removes much of it from the air stream. We continue to be in the middle of the historical pollen season thus it should result in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways. However, very moist conditions often result in the pollen grains becoming less aerodynamic and thus they are lost from the airstream

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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