The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 27 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period. Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70’s both today and tomorrow. Mostly cloudy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma today, and cloudy conditions will dominate to the south, except on the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will evolve during the day. Across Texas patchy fog will occur in the morning hours with a chance of drizzle and showers developing in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid-70’s across the region. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate conditions across Texas and reaching into strong conditions across Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain across the northern areas and cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be very mild with the mid to upper 50’s in Oklahoma, mid to lower 60’s in region from Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin and over to San Antonio. On the Edwards Plateau lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50’s. Winds will remain from the south at lite to moderate conditions. Tonight and tomorrow there is a 20% chance of precipitation over the Arbuckle Mountains and winds will be strong getting above 20 mile per hour. Tomorrow, fog and drizzle will occur in edge communities surrounding the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Both Austin and San Antonio will have a 20% chance of precipitation. Across the region high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70’s. Winds will maintain their southerly flow with many areas seeing moderately strong conditions. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions continue. From Oklahoma City southward around the Edwards Plateau edge there will be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of showers. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the low 60’s off of the Edwards Plateau and into the mid to upper 50’s on the Plateau. Winds will continue from the south at lite to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move to the north across Oklahoma and onward into eastern Kansas and then over Missouri. The trajectories at ground level will be stable and move along the ground to begin with as they travel downwind. Today the temperatures will be in the mid 70’s across Texas warming into the upper 70’s region wide tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will be in the upper 60’s today and then warm into the mid 70’s tomorrow. Both days, across the entire region there will be high levels of moisture resulting in early fog and drizzle. Locations with the greatest chance of showers along with the high humidity will be the southern edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. However, even the Edwards Plateau may see patchy morning fog today. Winds will be moderate today from the south. The southerly flow will occur during the entire forecast period. Tomorrow the moisture will remain and the edge communities will have a 20% chance of showers along with early morning fog and drizzle. The region will be very warm with temperatures in the 70’s. Tomorrow night the chance of rain, 20%, will develop over the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and into the edge communities. Winds will remain from the south at lite to moderate conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Warm conditions today and tomorrow with high temperatures expected to be close to or in the 70’s today. Winds will be lite to moderate across Texas and building to strong conditions in Oklahoma. The southerly flow will remain tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today, cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and drizzle in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The moisture will build tomorrow resulting in a 20% chance of showers tomorrow and tomorrow night. Warm conditions across Texas and moderate winds, but with very high levels of moisture in the air will result in moderate conditions for pollen release both today and tomorrow. The air is more buoyant than it has been recently, therefore the possibility of entrainment and travel from the tree populations is possible. We are in the middle of the historical pollen season, therefore there should be a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways both today and tomorrow. However high moisture levels will dampen pollen levels. For these reasons a moderate chance of pollen moving northward from Texas is expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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