The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 28 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sunday, January 28 TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period. Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70s both today and tomorrow. Mostly cloudy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma today, and cloudy conditions will dominate to the south, except on the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will evolve during the day. Across Texas patchy fog will occur in the morning hours with a chance of drizzle and showers developing in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid-70s across the region. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate conditions across Texas and reaching into strong conditions across Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain across the northern areas and cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will be very mild with the mid to upper 50s in Oklahoma, mid to lower 60s in region from Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin and over to San Antonio. On the Edwards Plateau lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will remain from the south at lite to moderate conditions. Tonight and tomorrow there is a 20% chance of precipitation over the Arbuckle Mountains and winds will be strong getting above 20 mile per hour. Tomorrow, fog and drizzle will occur in edge communities surrounding the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Both Austin and San Antonio will have a 20% chance of precipitation. Across the region high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s. Winds will maintain their southerly flow with many areas seeing moderately strong conditions. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions continue. From Oklahoma City southward around the Edwards Plateau edge there will be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of showers. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the low 60s off of the Edwards Plateau and into the mid to upper 50s on the Plateau. Winds will continue from the south at lite to moderate conditions

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and onward into eastern Kansas and then over Missouri. The trajectories at ground level will be stable and move along the ground to begin with as they travel downwind. Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s across Texas both today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will also be in the 70s today and tomorrow. Both days, across the entire region there will be high levels of moisture resulting in early morning fog and drizzle today. Later in the afternoon an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. The chance of Thunderstorms will continue overnight and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow will see the greatest chance. Tomorrow the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will remain dry with most of the moisture in the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south today and tonight at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the winds will begin to build to moderate conditions with areas to the west and southwest experiencing very strong winds. Sonora TX during tomorrow afternoon may see gusts to 45 miles per hour. Temperatures tomorrow will return to the warm conditions expected today. Tomorrow night, however, cooler conditions will build in with lows in the 30s on the Plateau and in Oklahoma and 40s in the surrounding communities.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Warm conditions today and tomorrow with high temperatures expected to be in the 70s to low 80s. Winds will be lite to moderate across Texas and building to strong conditions in Oklahoma. The southerly flow will remain tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and drizzle in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau both days. The moisture will result in an increasing chance of showers through the day today and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today and tonight the chance of precipitation will be region wide and then decline to the eastern Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will be from the south shifting to the southwest and then west. Tomorrow moderate winds will increase in the afternoon over the Edwards Plateau resulting in gusts in the evening approaching 45 miles per hour. The temperatures will be good for pollen release but the amount of moisture, cloudy conditions and developing showers and thunderstorms suggest that most pollen will be washed from the airstream. Any pollen that does get airborne will move northward on the dominant wind pattern from the south today, tonight and tomorrow. We are in the middle of the historical pollen season, this results in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways both today and tomorrow. However, high moisture levels and stormy conditions will dampen pollen entrainment and travel. For these reasons a moderate chance of pollen moving northward from Texas is expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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