The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 28 January 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Sunday, January 28 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over the forecast period.
Although the air will be moist areas across Texas will still reach into the 70’s both today and tomorrow. Mostly
cloudy conditions will occur across southern Oklahoma today, and cloudy conditions will dominate to the south,
except on the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy conditions will evolve during the day. Across Texas patchy fog
will occur in the morning hours with a chance of drizzle and showers developing in the communities surrounding
the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid-70’s across the region. Winds will be from the south at
lite to moderate conditions across Texas and reaching into strong conditions across Oklahoma. Tonight mostly cloudy
skies will remain across the northern areas and cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will
be very mild with the mid to upper 50’s in Oklahoma, mid to lower 60’s in region from Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin
and over to San Antonio. On the Edwards Plateau lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50’s. Winds will remain
from the south at lite to moderate conditions. Tonight and tomorrow there is a 20% chance of precipitation over
the Arbuckle Mountains and winds will be strong getting above 20 mile per hour. Tomorrow, fog and drizzle will
occur in edge communities surrounding the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Both Austin and San Antonio
will have a 20% chance of precipitation. Across the region high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper
70’s. Winds will maintain their southerly flow with many areas seeing moderately strong conditions. Tomorrow
night mostly cloudy and cloudy conditions continue. From Oklahoma City southward around the Edwards Plateau edge
there will be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of showers. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the
low 60’s off of the Edwards Plateau and into the mid to upper 50’s on the Plateau. Winds will continue from the
south at lite to moderate conditions
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma
and onward into eastern Kansas and then over Missouri. The trajectories at ground level will be stable and move
along the ground to begin with as they travel downwind. Temperatures will be in the mid 70’s to the low 80’s across
Texas both today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will also be in the 70’s today and tomorrow. Both
days, across the entire region there will be high levels of moisture resulting in early morning fog and drizzle
today. Later in the afternoon an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. The chance
of Thunderstorms will continue overnight and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow will see the greatest
chance. Tomorrow the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will remain dry with most of the moisture in the
eastern Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south today
and tonight at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the winds will begin to build to moderate conditions with
areas to the west and southwest experiencing very strong winds. Sonora TX during tomorrow afternoon may see gusts
to 45 miles per hour. Temperatures tomorrow will return to the warm conditions expected today. Tomorrow night,
however, cooler conditions will build in with lows in the 30’s on the Plateau and in Oklahoma and 40’s in the surrounding
communities.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Warm conditions
today and tomorrow with high temperatures expected to be in the 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be lite to moderate
across Texas and building to strong conditions in Oklahoma. The southerly flow will remain tonight, tomorrow and
tomorrow night. Cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and drizzle in
areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau both days. The moisture will result in an increasing chance of showers through
the day today and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today and tonight the chance of precipitation will be region
wide and then decline to the eastern Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Winds will be from the south shifting to the southwest and then west. Tomorrow moderate winds will increase in
the afternoon over the Edwards Plateau resulting in gusts in the evening approaching 45 miles per hour. The temperatures
will be good for pollen release but the amount of moisture, cloudy conditions and developing showers and thunderstorms
suggest that most pollen will be washed from the airstream. Any pollen that does get airborne will move northward
on the dominant wind pattern from the south today, tonight and tomorrow. We are in the middle of the historical
pollen season, this results in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways both today and tomorrow.
However, high moisture levels and stormy conditions will dampen pollen entrainment and travel. For these reasons
a moderate chance of pollen moving northward from Texas is expected.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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