The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 28 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies beginning each day over the forecast period. Patchy fog and drizzle is possible over all of Texas and southern Oklahoma today. Showers and thunderstorms may build and the region as a whole has a 20% chance, except for the far western and southwestern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures today will be in the 70’s with the far western Edwards Plateau toying with the low 80’s. Winds will be lite to moderate from the south all day, then will diminish slightly into the evening but maintaining a flow from the south overnight. In the evening showers and thunderstorms are a potential with a 20% chance in most areas. The low temperatures will be in the 60’s mostly, with mid to lower 50’s to the north and across the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow, the skies will remain cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region except for partly sunny skies in San Antonio. The chance of thunderstorms and showers climbs with a 60% chance in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and 70% along the border with Oklahoma. In the edge communities and eastern Edwards Plateua there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms although in the 20% to 40% range. Temperatures will climb once again into the 80’s in the southernmost areas surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south and southwest starting at lite to moderate conditions but becoming very strong (35 to 45 mph) into the late afternoon especially on the Edwards Plateau. The winds will remain mostly from the west and southwest. Tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with a chance of showers everywhere but on the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will cool significantly with the Edwards Plateau and in southern Oklahoma dropping into the mid 30’s. From the Dallas/Fort Worth area southward around the edge of the Plateau lows will remain in the mid 40’s. Winds will remain moderate with strong gusts as high as 35 mph in places.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and onward into eastern Kansas and then over Missouri. The trajectories at ground level will be stable and move along the ground to begin with as they travel downwind. Temperatures will be in the mid 70’s to the low 80’s across Texas both today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma the temperatures will also be in the 70’s today and tomorrow. Both days, across the entire region there will be high levels of moisture resulting in early morning fog and drizzle today. Later in the afternoon an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms begin to develop. The chance of Thunderstorms will continue overnight and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow will see the greatest chance. Tomorrow the western portions of the Edwards Plateau will remain dry with most of the moisture in the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south today and tonight at lite to moderate conditions. Tomorrow the winds will begin to build to moderate conditions with areas to the west and southwest experiencing very strong winds. Sonora TX during tomorrow afternoon may see gusts to 45 miles per hour. Temperatures tomorrow will return to the warm conditions expected today. Tomorrow night, however, cooler conditions will build in with lows in the 30’s on the Plateau and in Oklahoma and 40’s in the surrounding communities.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Warm conditions today and tomorrow with high temperatures expected to be in the 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be lite to moderate across Texas and building to strong conditions in Oklahoma. The southerly flow will remain tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Cloudy skies will build over the region and moisture will result in patchy fog and drizzle in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau both days. The moisture will result in an increasing chance of showers through the day today and into tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today and tonight the chance of precipitation will be region wide and then decline to the eastern Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities tomorrow and tomorrow night. Winds will be from the south shifting to the southwest and then west. Tomorrow moderate winds will increase in the afternoon over the Edwards Plateau resulting in gusts in the evening approaching 45 miles per hour. The temperatures will be good for pollen release but the amount of moisture, cloudy conditions and developing showers and thunderstorms suggest that most pollen will be washed from the airstream. Any pollen that does get airborne will move northward on the dominant wind pattern from the south today, tonight and tomorrow. We are in the middle of the historical pollen season, this results in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways both today and tomorrow. However, high moisture levels and stormy conditions will dampen pollen entrainment and travel. For these reasons a moderate chance of pollen moving northward from Texas is expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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