The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 29 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will see a lot of moisture with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies today then clearing out tomorrow and tomorrow night. The air will be moist across Texas today with a significant chance of rain to the north in Oklahoma stretching southward into the Dallas/Fort Worth area and then onto the communities surrounding the eastern Edwards Plateau. There will be the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout those areas, but decrease towards the south. High temperatures will be warm with the upper 70’s common and San Antonio reaching into the 80’s. The winds will be from the southwest at moderate levels to the north and starting at moderate conditions to the south that will increase in the afternoon to strong conditions and gusts reaching 45 mph. Tonight the skies will begin to clear with partly cloudy conditions in most areas. A few communities will continue to have a chance of a shower or thunderstorm; however the overall chance across the region is not above 20% chance. Tonight’s temperatures will be in the 30’s to the north across Oklahoma, in the 40’s from Dallas/Fort Worth along the eastern rim of the Edwards Plateau, and back in the 30’s on the Plateau itself. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the west and northwest. Tomorrow sunny skies will return to the region with high temperatures ranging from the 40’s in Oklahoma to the 50’s through the northern DFW metro region and into the 60’s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will climb inot the upper 50’s on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the northwest at moderate conditions. Tomorrow night mostly clear conditions will dominate. Temperatures will drop into the 30’s from southern Oklahoma south through to the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau temperatures will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will be mixed with southwesterly breezes to the north and on the Plateau. Winds will begin from the northwest elsewhere but then turn during the night to a more southwesterly flow. Winds will be lite overnight

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north across Oklahoma and onward into Missouri and over Illinois. The trajectories at ground level will be very buoyant and the chance of thunderstorms and showers are at 80% for the Arbuckle region. In Oklahoma the high temperatures will be in the mid 70’s today with a significant cool down tomorrow and high temperatures returning to the mid 50’s. Today, later in the afternoon an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop across the northern area. The chance of Thunderstorms will begin to clear overnight with no chance of precipitation tonight and into tomorrow as well as tomorrow night. Colder air will move into the region and tomorrow along with tomorrow night will see a significant cool down. High temperatures tomorrow will rise to the mid 50’s and low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** The last of the warm conditions will occur today with much cooler conditions tomorrow. Today emperatures will build to the mid 70’s. Winds will be moderate to strong across Texas and building towards strong conditions in Oklahoma. The southwesterly flow will remain today, then switch to a more westerly flow tonight. Tomorrow winds will be from the northwest and tomorrow night areas begin to switch back to a southwesterly flow from the northwesterly conditions tomorrow. Cloudy skies will remain today with a significant chance of rain in southern Oklahoma southward along the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau. The temperatures will be good for pollen release but the amount of moisture, cloudy conditions and developing showers and thunderstorms suggest that most pollen will be washed from the airstream in southern Oklahoma. Any pollen that does get airborne will move northward on the dominant wind pattern from the south today, tonight and tomorrow. We are in the middle of the historical pollen season, this results in a better chance of pollen moving along the trajectory pathways however expected showers and thunderstorms will wash much of it out of the airstream .


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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