The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 30 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will settle back into sunny skies and more moderate temperatures. Today mostly sunny to sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 50’s in all areas except for the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the Northwest today starting at strong conditions decreasing to moderate levels. Tonight mostly clear to clear skies will allow temperatures to drop. The Edwards Plateau will drop into the upper 20’s and the remainder of the area will stay above freezing mostly in the mid 30’s. Winds will slacken to lite conditions and turn away from the northwest coming from the southwest by morning. Tomorrow mostly sunny and sunny conditions will return with the entire region returning to the mid-60’s except for the far north in central Oklahoma. Winds will be from the southwest at lite to moderate levels. The Arbuckle Mountains will more of a westerly flow. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies across the region will result in a cool evening. The entire region, except in central Oklahoma, will be in the low 30’s to just dipping under 40 degrees in the edge communities. Winds will be from the north and northeast in Oklahoma at lite to moderate levels. Southward in Texas lite winds will be mostly from the southwest in the edge communities and a general southerly flow will occur over the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move to the east southeast over northeastern Texas and into Louisiana on very strong winds from the northwest. The air will be cool and dense travelling at or near ground level. High temperatures today will be in the low 50’s and there will be a significant cooling from the last couple of days. The trajectories move towards the southeast today and as the winds shift to a more southwesterly direction tonight and tomorrow head towards the northeast. The ground winds will shift first then those that started at 250m but the trajectory at 500m will remain on a southeasterly pathway. Tomorrow clear and mostly sunny skies return for another day. Temperatures increase into the mid to upper 60’s and winds will rotate to a westerly direction at lite levels. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain with temperatures in the low 30’s. Winds will be moderate from the southwest.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are moderate today with high temperatures only in the low 50’s. In addition the air is dense and it will be very breezy. For these reason pollen will be released and entrained but downwind travel will be restricted by the wind density and its movement at or near the ground. Conditions today will push any entrained pollen into the northeastern portion of the state on a dominant northwesterly wind pattern. The trajectories will travel towards northern Louisiana overnight. As the winds switch a more southwesterly flow will take over pushing the trajectories to the northeast. Tomorrow temperatures will cool with high’s in the mid 60’s. Winds will be moderate from the west. Later in the day and into the evening the northerly winds return to the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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