The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 30 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will settle back into sunny skies and more moderate temperatures. Today mostly sunny to sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 50’s in all areas except for the edge communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the Northwest today starting at strong conditions decreasing to moderate levels. Tonight mostly clear to clear skies will allow temperatures to drop. The Edwards Plateau will drop into the upper 20’s and the remainder of the area will stay above freezing mostly in the mid 30’s. Winds will slacken to lite conditions and turn away from the northwest coming from the southwest by morning. Tomorrow mostly sunny and sunny conditions will return with the entire region returning to the mid-60’s except for the far north in central Oklahoma. Winds will be from the southwest at lite to moderate levels. The Arbuckle Mountains will more of a westerly flow. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies across the region will result in a cool evening. The entire region, except in central Oklahoma, will be in the low 30’s to just dipping under 40 degrees in the edge communities. Winds will be from the north and northeast in Oklahoma at lite to moderate levels. Southward in Texas lite winds will be mostly from the southwest in the edge communities and a general southerly flow will occur over the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move to the southeast over southeastern Texas and then turn back towards the Edwards Plateau as the winds back coming from the southwest tomorrow. The air will be cool and dense travelling at ground level. High temperatures today will be in the upper 50’s and low 60’s a significant cooling from the last couple of days. The trajectories swirl over southern and southern central Texas. Today, winds will initially be strong, upwards of 25 miles per hour sustained, with gusts in the 35 mph range. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and winds will relax to low levels turning from their northwest direction, coming from the southwest. Tomorrow clear to mostly clear skies return for another day. Temperatures increase into the mid to upper 60’s and winds will remain from the southwest at moderate conditions. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will remain with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees warmer than tonight. Most areas will remain above freezing. Winds will remain calm mostly from the southwest.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to Severe Threat today and Severe threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today but the air is dense but it will be very breezy. For these reason pollen will be released and entrained but downwind travel will be restricted by the wind density and its movement at or near the ground. Conditions today will push any entrained pollen into the southern portion of the state on a dominant northwesterly wind pattern. Temperatures will cool with most high’s in the 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will be strong from the northwest as the cold front pushes across the region. Tomorrow a southwesterly wind takes over at moderate conditions. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60’s in most areas. Any pollen that gets airborne today will move southward. The air is very dense and thus most of the pollen will be cleared from the air by impaction on surfaces at or near the ground. Pollen that does get entrained may be able to move some distance. Areas to the southeast and south along the Gulf Coast (McAllen, to Corpus Christie, to Houston and Galveston) will see pollen that is entrained today. Tomorrow the winds will shift to a southwesterly flow and thus any pollen entrained will move northward.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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