The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue with sunny skies and more moderate temperatures. Today mostly sunny to sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 60’s in all areas except far to the north in central Oklahoma.. Winds will be from the Southwest today at moderate strengths. Tonight mostly clear to clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s to the north in Oklahoma and in the lower 30’s on the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities the upper 30’s will be prevalent. Winds will be from the south at lite conditions over the Edwards Plateau. In the edge communities winds will be lite and from the southeast along the southern edge and the southwest in Austin and further north. The Dallas/Fort Worth area will see winds from the northwest turning to the northeast. In Oklahoma a northeasterly flow will occur at lite levels. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies with partly cloudy conditions build over the Edwards Plateau during the day. High temperatures will be in the upper 60’s over most of Texas. In Oklahoma the highs will be in the mid 50’s. Winds in Oklahoma will be from the southeast at lite to moderate conditions. Across the Edwards Plateau in Texas winds will be stronger at moderate to strong conditions from the south. Winds in those areas will build during the afternoon. In the edge communities winds will start very lite from the east then switch to the southeasterly flow at moderate conditions. Tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy conditions will return across Texas. Low temperatures will be mild, 40’s and 50’s, and winds will be moderate from the south.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau, at or near the ground will move to the north/northeast over Texas and eventually into central Oklahoma. The air will continue to be quite mixed and turbulent at higher levels (see 500 meter versus 100 meter matrix trajectories). Temperatures today and tomorrow will both be in the 60’ with lite to moderate winds primarily from the south. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low 30’s across the Edwards Plateau and into the upper 30’s in the surrounding communities. In Oklahoma expect lows to be in the low to mid 20’s overnight. Tomorrow sunny skies and a 1 to 2 degree warming will occur. Winds will begin very lite away from the Plateau and then build as the day wears on. Over the Edwards Plateau southerly winds will predominate and build during the afternoon. Wind gusts may get as high as 20 to 25 miles per hour. The winds at the ground surface indicate that they will be relatively stable initially.


OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today and it will be breezy with moderate conditions. For these reason pollen will be released and entrained including downwind travel. The one drawback is that the air is relatively stable and thus the removal of pollen by impaction at or near the ground surface may result in reduced pollen delivery downwind. Conditions today will push any entrained pollen northward across Texas and eventually into central Oklahoma. Along the pathway and overnight the winds will switch but forward progress tomorrow will move the trajectories on a northerly pathway once again.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE at 500 m and 100 m above ground

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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