The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, February 1 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue with sunny to mostly sunny skies this morning and more moderate temperatures. Today mostly sunny to sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 60’s in all areas except to the north where the Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Oklahoma will only reach into the 50’s. Winds to the north will be from the east while in the edge communities they will come from the north switching to the southeast near the noon hour in Austin and be from the southeast all day in San Antonio. Winds will build towards the late afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south building during the day to moderate conditions. Tonight the low’s will be seasonally cool with most areas in the mid to low 40’s. Oklahoma will be in the mid 30’s. Tomorrow areas to the north will be sunny. In the edge communities and across the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy clearing in the afternoon will occur. Temperatures will rise a good 5 to 10 degrees in some areas. San Antonio is expected to reach into the mid 70’s. Winds will be from the north and northwest in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself winds will be form the northwest at moderate conditions. Winds will be from the Southwest today at moderate strengths. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will dominate and lows will be in the mid 30’s to the north and on the Plateau whereas the edge communities will edge into the mid to upper 40’s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains, shows a buoyant atmosphere that will move pollen entrained in the atmosphere northward over central Oklahoma, then turning towards the northeast over southeast Kansas and into Missouri. Temperatures will be in the low 50s today and tomorrow will be in the mid 60s. Pollen release conditions today are marginal to good but will improve tomorrow with slightly warmer conditions. The air is buoyant and rising throughout the forecast period and thus pollen entrained within the air stream will be carried downwind.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are moderate today with high temperatures only in the low 50s but warming into the mid 60s tomorrow. In addition the air is buoyant and thus entrained pollen should carry some distance. Winds will be lite today and tomorrow. For these reason pollen is expected to be released and entrained with downwind travel, but the cooler temperatures today will retard pollen release whereas the warmer conditions tomorrow will enhance its release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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