The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, February 1 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue with sunny to mostly sunny skies this morning and more moderate temperatures. Today mostly sunny to sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 60’s in all areas except to the north where the Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Oklahoma will only reach into the 50’s. Winds to the north will be from the east while in the edge communities they will come from the north switching to the southeast near the noon hour in Austin and be from the southeast all day in San Antonio. Winds will build towards the late afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south building during the day to moderate conditions. Tonight the low’s will be seasonally cool with most areas in the mid to low 40’s. Oklahoma will be in the mid 30’s. Tomorrow areas to the north will be sunny. In the edge communities and across the Edwards Plateau mostly cloudy clearing in the afternoon will occur. Temperatures will rise a good 5 to 10 degrees in some areas. San Antonio is expected to reach into the mid 70’s. Winds will be from the north and northwest in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau itself winds will be form the northwest at moderate conditions. Winds will be from the Southwest today at moderate strengths. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will dominate and lows will be in the mid 30’s to the north and on the Plateau whereas the edge communities will edge into the mid to upper 40’s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau, show pollen remaining at or near the ground and will move to the north/northeast over Texas and Oklahoma, then turn to the east on westerly winds. The trajectories cover much of southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas then continuing eastward. The air begins rather dense and shows no signs of being mixed or turbulent. Temperatures today and tomorrow will both be in the 60’ in most areas with lite to moderate winds primarily from the south. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low 40’s across the region. In Oklahoma expect lows to be in the low to mid 30’s overnight. Tomorrow sunny skies and one to two degrees of warming will occur. Winds will begin lite to moderate from the southwest away from the Plateau and from the north on the Plateau The winds at the ground surface indicate that they will be relatively stable initially but may become more buoyant downwind.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today and it will be breezy with moderate conditions. In addition we are still in the period that historically is still within the heavy pollination period. For these reason pollen will be released and entrained including downwind travel. The air is relatively stable and thus the removal of pollen by impaction at or near the ground surface may result in reduced pollen delivery downwind. Conditions today will push any entrained pollen northward across Texas and eventually into Oklahoma then off to the east. Along the pathway and overnight the winds will switch but forward progress tomorrow will move the trajectories on a easterly pathway once again.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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