The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday, February 2 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild with moderate to warm temperatures. Today sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 60’s to mid-70’s. In the morning, patchy foggy will occur during the morning hours in the edge communities. As the area warms, winds will be mostly from the north in the morning with some of the edge communities having a more southerly flow. By tonight, a more north to northeasterly flow will dominate the entire region. Tonight the low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s to the north in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. The edge communities will remain mild with lows in the mid 40’s to low 50s. Winds will remain at lite to moderate levels from the north and northeast. Tomorrow skies to the north will be sunny with increasing clouds towards the south. High temperatures will be in the upper 60’s across the region, except towards the Oklahoma border where temperatures will cool to the upper 50’s. Tomorrow winds will begin from the north and northeast, then shift towards the southeast and eventually to the south. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will build towards strong conditions during the afternoon. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be in the 40’s in most areas with warmer conditions in the surrounding edge communities. The edge communities will also see patchy fog and the potential of drizzle building in. Winds will once again be primarily from the south and southeast at lite levels, but bringing warm moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains, shows cold dense air in the atmosphere move pollen southward on a dominant north wind. Temperatures will reach into the low 60’s today and mid 60’s tomorrow. Warm conditions should release pollen but the dense character of the atmosphere suggests that much of the pollen will be removed upon travel by impaction against other vegetation. The trajectories move the pollen towards the south, on northerly winds tonight, then will eventually switch back tomorrow as southerly winds regain their strength.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are low today with moderate temperatures in the low 60’s, warming into the mid 60’s tomorrow. Today the air is dense with the northerly flow and thus stays very close to the ground where impaction can occur. Winds will be lite today, building into tomorrow. For these reason pollen is expected to be released and entrained with downwind travel, but at ground level where impaction is a primary remover of pollen from the airstream. Tomorrow winds will pick up but the wind will be coming from the south and potentially will impact communities to the north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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