The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, February 2 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild with moderate to warm temperatures. Today sunny skies will dominate the region with temperatures in the 60’s to mid-70’s. In the morning, patchy foggy will occur during the morning hours in the edge communities. As the area warms, winds will be mostly from the north in the morning with some of the edge communities having a more southerly flow. By tonight, a more north to northeasterly flow will dominate the entire region. Tonight the low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30’s to the north in Oklahoma and across the Edwards Plateau. The edge communities will remain mild with lows in the mid 40’s to low 50s. Winds will remain at lite to moderate levels from the north and northeast. Tomorrow skies to the north will be sunny with increasing clouds towards the south. High temperatures will be in the upper 60’s across the region, except towards the Oklahoma border where temperatures will cool to the upper 50’s. Tomorrow winds will begin from the north and northeast, then shift towards the southeast and eventually to the south. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will build towards strong conditions during the afternoon. Tomorrow night low temperatures will be in the 40’s in most areas with warmer conditions in the surrounding edge communities. The edge communities will also see patchy fog and the potential of drizzle building in. Winds will once again be primarily from the south and southeast at lite levels, but bringing warm moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau, show pollen remaining at or near the ground with relatively stable winds. The trajectories show that the winds will move slowly across the region with most of the trajectories staying in a band across central Texas. The continual changing of wind direction over the next 48 hours will keep most of the trajectories relatively close to their initial dispersion location. Temperatures today will be in the 70’s then tomorrow will cool into the 60’s. Winds will be much stronger tomorrow building towards moderately strong conditions tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions build in across the area ending in mostly cloudy conditions. Winds will remain from the south at moderate conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today but the winds will be lite and variable in their directions. Temperatures will be warm thus pollen should be available for entrainment and travel. However, the atmosphere appears relatively stable and winds will be lite approaching moderate conditions in most places. We are still in the period that historically is \within the heavy pollination period, however recently reported levels indicate an overall reduction in pollen availability. For these reason pollen will be released and entrained including downwind travel but at moderate conditions. The lite winds will move the pollen relatively small distances and most of it will remain in the central Texas region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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