The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 February 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Sunday, February 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Today skies will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma and mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau. Dallas/Fort Worth southward to the edge communities will see mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. High temperatures today across the region will range from 60 to the far north into the low 70’s in San Antonio to the south. Winds will be lite and variable from the southeast in Oklahoma becoming lite to moderate in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the east to southeast in the edge communities at lite to moderate levels. Winds will build to stronger levels, coming from the southeast then south, over the Edwards Plateau during the day. Tonight mostly cloudy conditions build in with an increasing chance of precipitation tonight after midnight in northern Texas and southernmost Oklahoma. Temperatures will be mild with lows dropping into the lower 50 degree range. Winds will be from the south and southeast at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow southern Oklahoma will be partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of rain continuing through the morning. The showers in southern Oklahoma will extend into northern Texas with a declining chance of rain as far south as Austin (20%). The southern edge communities will have patchy fog and drizzle tomorrow morning. Across the region temperatures will reach the low 60’s while to the south temperatures will be in the low 70’s. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate levels. In the western most portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the west. Tomorrow night Oklahoma south to northern Texas will be clear to mostly clear with lows remaining above freezing but in the 30’s. To the south the region will have partly cloudy skies with the edge communities’ dropping into the upper 40’s and low 50’s. On the Edwards Plateau nighttime temperatures will bottom out in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains, move northward on a dominant southerly wind. Temperatures will reach into the mid 60’s today and low 60’s tomorrow. Warm conditions should release pollen but the stable character of the atmosphere suggests that much of the pollen will be removed upon travel by impaction against other vegetation. Tonight there is an increasing chance of showers across southern Oklahoma that will wash any entrained pollen from the atmosphere. The trajectories move the pollen towards the north, on southerly winds tonight with the chance of showers extending into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow temperatures will return to the low 60’s with lite winds. Tomorrow night, skies will clear and lows will fall into the low 30’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are moderate today with temperatures in the upper 60’s, cooling into the low 60’s tomorrow. Today the air is stable with the southerly flow and thus stays close to the ground where impaction can occur. Winds will be lite today and tomorrow. A 50% chance of showers will build in tonight into tomorrow night washing any entrained pollen from the air stream. For these reason pollen is expected to be released and entrained with the potential of downwind travel, but at ground level where impaction is a primary remover of pollen from the airstream. Tomorrow the chance of showers will remain in the morning then skies will begin to clear.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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