The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 3 February 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Sunday, February 3 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s.
Today skies will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma and mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau. Dallas/Fort
Worth southward to the edge communities will see mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. High temperatures today across
the region will range from 60 to the far north into the low 70’s in San Antonio to the south. Winds will be lite
and variable from the southeast in Oklahoma becoming lite to moderate in the communities surrounding the Edwards
Plateau. Winds will be from the east to southeast in the edge communities at lite to moderate levels. Winds
will build to stronger levels, coming from the southeast then south, over the Edwards Plateau during the day.
Tonight mostly cloudy conditions build in with an increasing chance of precipitation tonight after midnight in
northern Texas and southernmost Oklahoma. Temperatures will be mild with lows dropping into the lower 50 degree
range. Winds will be from the south and southeast at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow southern Oklahoma will
be partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of rain continuing through the morning. The showers in southern Oklahoma
will extend into northern Texas with a declining chance of rain as far south as Austin (20%). The southern edge
communities will have patchy fog and drizzle tomorrow morning. Across the region temperatures will reach the low
60’s while to the south temperatures will be in the low 70’s. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate
levels. In the western most portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the west. Tomorrow night Oklahoma
south to northern Texas will be clear to mostly clear with lows remaining above freezing but in the 30’s. To the
south the region will have partly cloudy skies with the edge communities’ dropping into the upper 40’s and low
50’s. On the Edwards Plateau nighttime temperatures will bottom out in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains, move northward on a dominant
southerly wind. Temperatures will reach into the mid 60’s today and low 60’s tomorrow. Warm conditions should
release pollen but the stable character of the atmosphere suggests that much of the pollen will be removed upon
travel by impaction against other vegetation. Tonight there is an increasing chance of showers across southern
Oklahoma that will wash any entrained pollen from the atmosphere. The trajectories move the pollen towards the
north, on southerly winds tonight with the chance of showers extending into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow temperatures
will return to the low 60’s with lite winds. Tomorrow night, skies will clear and lows will fall into the low
30’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow ***
Conditions for pollen release are moderate today with temperatures in the upper 60’s, cooling into the low 60’s
tomorrow. Today the air is stable with the southerly flow and thus stays close to the ground where impaction can
occur. Winds will be lite today and tomorrow. A 50% chance of showers will build in tonight into tomorrow night
washing any entrained pollen from the air stream. For these reason pollen is expected to be released and entrained
with the potential of downwind travel, but at ground level where impaction is a primary remover of pollen from
the airstream. Tomorrow the chance of showers will remain in the morning then skies will begin to clear.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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