The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sunday, February 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Today skies will be partly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma and mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau. Dallas/Fort Worth southward to the edge communities will see mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. High temperatures today across the region will range from 60 to the far north into the low 70’s in San Antonio to the south. Winds will be lite and variable from the southeast in Oklahoma becoming lite to moderate in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the east to southeast in the edge communities at lite to moderate levels. Winds will build to stronger levels, coming from the southeast then south, over the Edwards Plateau during the day. Tonight mostly cloudy conditions build in with an increasing chance of precipitation tonight after midnight in northern Texas and southernmost Oklahoma. Temperatures will be mild with lows dropping into the lower 50 degree range. Winds will be from the south and southeast at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow southern Oklahoma will be partly to mostly cloudy with the chance of rain continuing through the morning. The showers in southern Oklahoma will extend into northern Texas with a declining chance of rain as far south as Austin (20%). The southern edge communities will have patchy fog and drizzle tomorrow morning. Across the region temperatures will reach the low 60’s while to the south temperatures will be in the low 70’s. Winds will be from the south at lite to moderate levels. In the western most portion of the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the west. Tomorrow night Oklahoma south to northern Texas will be clear to mostly clear with lows remaining above freezing but in the 30’s. To the south the region will have partly cloudy skies with the edge communities’ dropping into the upper 40’s and low 50’s. On the Edwards Plateau nighttime temperatures will bottom out in the low 40’s and upper 30’s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau, show pollen remaining at or near the ground with relatively stable winds. The trajectories show that the winds will move northward with the trajectories staying in a band across central northern Texas and Oklahoma then turning east across southern Kansas into Missouri and northern Arkansas. Temperatures today will be in the 70’s and upper 60’s then warm slightly tomorrow. Winds will lite to moderate throughout the forecast period with a dominant southerly flow over the forecast period. Across the northern forecast region the chance of showers will build tonight, after midnight, and extend into tomorrow morning. Southern Oklahoma is expected to have a 50% chance of rain tonight into the morning hours. Skies will clear tomorrow afternoon into the evening resulting in tomorrow nighttime temperatures cooling into the 30’s and 40’s.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today but winds will be lite. A dominant southerly wind will carry any pollen entrained towards the north. Temperatures will be warm thus pollen should be available for entrainment and travel. However, the atmosphere appears relatively stable and winds will be lite approaching moderate conditions in most places. The chance of precipitation in southern Oklahoma should clear the skies of pollen travelling northward. We are still in the period that historically is within the heavy pollination period, however recently reported levels indicate an overall reduction in pollen availability. For these reasons pollen will be released and entrained including downwind travel, to the extent that it is washed by showers and rain in southern Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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