The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, February 4 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s to the north and low 70’s across most of Texas. Skies this morning will begin as partly cloudy with a chance of rain and showers in the border area with Oklahoma and southward towards Dallas/Fort Worth. The chance of rain in the Arbuckle Mountains will be 50% today. Winds will be from the south to southwest. In Oklahoma as the day continues winds will switch coming from the north at moderate levels. Over the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southwest and west at moderate levels. Tonight in Oklahoma skies will clear and lows are expected to be in the 30’s. To the south in the Dallas/Fort Worth area a 20% chance of showers will remain with mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures of about 50. The warm nighttime lows will continue southward along the edge communities with most areas dropping into the low 50’s. Across the Edwards Plateau cooler conditions will prevail, with lows in the 40’s and upper 30’s. Winds will move to a more northerly or northwesterly direction except in the edge communities where the southerly breezes will continue. Tomorrow sunny to partly sunny skies will occur except for the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy skies will remain. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. North to northeasterly flow will occur across the area at lite levels. Tomorrow night cloudy skies build back in with a 20% chance of showers across the central Texas region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds will be from the east and southeast at moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains are mixed, moving due south at ground level but towards the east at 250m and above. At the higher elevations, the trajectories move towards the eastern portion of Texas then as a cohesive flow towards the east. Ground level winds will be from the south initially today shifting towards the north this afternoon. Temperatures today will reach the 60’s. There is a significant chance of rain, early, and showers towards the afternoon. Winds will remain from the north tonight with low temperatures in the 30’s then become lite and variable tomorrow. Skies will clear tonight and remain clear tomorrow with the morning seeing sunny skies. Tomorrow high temperatures will return to the mid to lower 60’s, winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow night the low temperature is expected to return to the low 40’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are low today with temperatures just reaching 60 and a significant chance of rain in the area. Today the air is mixed with a flow moving the ground level winds to the south while above, 250m and 500m, the winds flow directly eastward. Winds will be moderate today and tomorrow. A 50% chance of showers will occur this morning with the chance of showers building in this afternoon. For these reason pollen levels are expected to be low today. Tomorrow, however, skies will be clear and warming conditions but with lite and variable winds will occur resulting in a moderate threat for pollen release, entrainment and travel. The amount of rainfall today will determine the ability of the cones to shed pollen tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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