The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 4 February 2013


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Monday, February 4 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s to the north and low 70’s across most of Texas. Skies this morning will begin as partly cloudy with a chance of rain and showers in the border area with Oklahoma and southward towards Dallas/Fort Worth. The chance of rain in the Arbuckle Mountains will be 50% today. Winds will be from the south to southwest. In Oklahoma as the day continues winds will switch coming from the north at moderate levels. Over the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southwest and west at moderate levels. Tonight in Oklahoma skies will clear and lows are expected to be in the 30’s. To the south in the Dallas/Fort Worth area a 20% chance of showers will remain with mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures of about 50. The warm nighttime lows will continue southward along the edge communities with most areas dropping into the low 50’s. Across the Edwards Plateau cooler conditions will prevail, with lows in the 40’s and upper 30’s. Winds will move to a more northerly or northwesterly direction except in the edge communities where the southerly breezes will continue. Tomorrow sunny to partly sunny skies will occur except for the Edwards Plateau where partly cloudy skies will remain. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. North to northeasterly flow will occur across the area at lite levels. Tomorrow night cloudy skies build back in with a 20% chance of showers across the central Texas region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds will be from the east and southeast at moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau are mixed initially moving around the region towards the north (see 100m trajectory). At the higher elevations, the trajectories move towards the eastern portion of Texas then as a cohesive flow towards the east. Ground level winds will be from the south today shifting towards the north tomorrow and the upper elevations are moving eastward on westerly winds. Temperatures today will be in the 70’s over central Texas and in the upper 60’s from Dallas/Fort Worth northward. Today there is a significant chance of rain, early, and showers towards the afternoon. Winds will moderate today from the south, switching to a northeasterly flow tonight and tomorrow before becoming an easterly wind tomorrow night. There is a chance of rain today in the northern forecast region then across the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night. Temperatures remain mild with most highs remaining in the 60’s and 70’s.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today with winds that will be moderate from the south and west. Trajectories across the Edwards Plateau show a mixed atmosphere that eventually moves northward at low levels towards Oklahoma. At upper levels a more dominant westerly flows can move some of the pollen towards the east if entrained and it rises in the atmosphere. Temperatures will be warm thus pollen should be available for entrainment and travel. The chance of precipitation in southern Oklahoma should clear the skies of pollen travelling northward. We are still in the period that historically is within the heavy pollination period, however recently reported levels indicate an overall reduction in pollen availability. For these reasons, a moderate threat is expected, pollen will be released and entrained including downwind travel, but should not be heavy because of the chance that it will be washed out by showers and rain in southern Oklahoma.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE at 500 meters and 100 meters above ground



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page