The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 4 February 2013
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Monday, February 4 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will continue mild today with warm temperatures in the upper 60’s to the north and
low 70’s across most of Texas. Skies this morning will begin as partly cloudy with a chance of rain and showers
in the border area with Oklahoma and southward towards Dallas/Fort Worth. The chance of rain in the Arbuckle Mountains
will be 50% today. Winds will be from the south to southwest. In Oklahoma as the day continues winds will switch
coming from the north at moderate levels. Over the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southwest and west at
moderate levels. Tonight in Oklahoma skies will clear and lows are expected to be in the 30’s. To the south in
the Dallas/Fort Worth area a 20% chance of showers will remain with mostly cloudy skies and low temperatures of
about 50. The warm nighttime lows will continue southward along the edge communities with most areas dropping
into the low 50’s. Across the Edwards Plateau cooler conditions will prevail, with lows in the 40’s and upper
30’s. Winds will move to a more northerly or northwesterly direction except in the edge communities where the
southerly breezes will continue. Tomorrow sunny to partly sunny skies will occur except for the Edwards Plateau
where partly cloudy skies will remain. Temperatures will once again be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. North to
northeasterly flow will occur across the area at lite levels. Tomorrow night cloudy skies build back in with a
20% chance of showers across the central Texas region. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.
Winds will be from the east and southeast at moderate conditions.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau are mixed initially moving around
the region towards the north (see 100m trajectory). At the higher elevations, the trajectories move towards the
eastern portion of Texas then as a cohesive flow towards the east. Ground level winds will be from the south today
shifting towards the north tomorrow and the upper elevations are moving eastward on westerly winds. Temperatures
today will be in the 70’s over central Texas and in the upper 60’s from Dallas/Fort Worth northward. Today there
is a significant chance of rain, early, and showers towards the afternoon. Winds will moderate today from the
south, switching to a northeasterly flow tonight and tomorrow before becoming an easterly wind tomorrow night.
There is a chance of rain today in the northern forecast region then across the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night.
Temperatures remain mild with most highs remaining in the 60’s and 70’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions
for pollen release are good today with winds that will be moderate from the south and west. Trajectories across
the Edwards Plateau show a mixed atmosphere that eventually moves northward at low levels towards Oklahoma. At
upper levels a more dominant westerly flows can move some of the pollen towards the east if entrained and it rises
in the atmosphere. Temperatures will be warm thus pollen should be available for entrainment and travel. The
chance of precipitation in southern Oklahoma should clear the skies of pollen travelling northward. We are still
in the period that historically is within the heavy pollination period, however recently reported levels indicate
an overall reduction in pollen availability. For these reasons, a moderate threat is expected, pollen will be
released and entrained including downwind travel, but should not be heavy because of the chance that it will be
washed out by showers and rain in southern Oklahoma.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE at 500 meters and 100 meters above ground
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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