The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 5 – TX/OK: Across the region today will be better than tomorrow when the chance of showers across central Texas builds. The weather in Oklahoma today will be in the mid 60s with light and variable winds. Tonight clear skies will continue but with the chance of patchy fog. Lows will fall into the mid 40s and winds will begin as lite and variable but build to light winds from the southeast. In Texas today, partly sunny skies will dominate with warm temperatures from the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region southward along and around the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Highs today will be in the upper 60s north and mid to upper 70s to the south. Winds will be lite initially from the southeast across northern Texas and from the north around the eastern Edwards Plateau edge communities. On the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 70s with northerly winds at lite levels except for the far west where winds will be from the southwest. Tonight in Texas partly to mostly cloudy skies build in with a chance of showers (20%) in the furthest south edge community of San Antonio. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas in the low 50s to upper 40s. Winds will be lite from the east across the Plateau with northeasterly winds in the Austin area and southeasterly breezes in the Dallas/Fort Worth region. Tomorrow, the southern Oklahoma pollinators in the Arbuckle Mountains will have partly cloudy skies with temperatures returning into the lower 70s. Winds will be light to moderate, from the south to southeast. Across Texas cloudy skies will build during the day with a chance of showers building across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Winds will continue from the southeast with gusty condition in the edge communities topping 20 to 25 miles per hour. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region, but the chance of precipitation will be from 40% in the edge communities to 20% across the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night the chance of rain continues across the entire region. Partly cloudy skies north and cloud to mostly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Temperatures overnight will be in the 50s and winds will be from the southeast at light to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains initially circle towards the west then move north on the predominantly southerly breezess. To the south most of the trajectory pathways will remain within Texas in the northern portion of the state on the same northerly flow. Winds today will be light and variable and will build towards tomorrow where moderate conditions will occur. Temperatures today will be in the mid 60s and tomorrow reach into the low 70s.. Patchy fog will occur tonight into tomorrow morning and then the chance of thunderstorms will build for tomorrow night. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be moderate and fall into the low 50s. Region wide, moisture will build in tonight with most areas having a 20% plus chance of precipitation tomorrow and especially tomorrow night..

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are moderate today and tomorrow with temperatures reaching into the mid 60s today and 70s tomorrow. Patchy fog will occur tonight, and tomorrow with a building chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. For these reason pollen levels are expected to be moderate today, but we are moving towards the historic end of the pollen season. This does not mean that the potential for a large release won’t occur but the chance is declining. Tomorrow, skies will begin to build into cloudy conditions with an increasing chance of precipitation .

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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