The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, February 5 – TX/OK: Across the region today will be better than tomorrow when the chance of showers across central Texas builds. The weather in Oklahoma today will be in the mid 60s with light and variable winds. Tonight clear skies will continue but with the chance of patchy fog. Lows will fall into the mid 40s and winds will begin as lite and variable but build to light winds from the southeast. In Texas today, partly sunny skies will dominate with warm temperatures from the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region southward along and around the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Highs today will be in the upper 60s north and mid to upper 70s to the south. Winds will be lite initially from the southeast across northern Texas and from the north around the eastern Edwards Plateau edge communities. On the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 70s with northerly winds at lite levels except for the far west where winds will be from the southwest. Tonight in Texas partly to mostly cloudy skies build in with a chance of showers (20%) in the furthest south edge community of San Antonio. Low temperatures will be mild with most areas in the low 50s to upper 40s. Winds will be lite from the east across the Plateau with northeasterly winds in the Austin area and southeasterly breezes in the Dallas/Fort Worth region. Tomorrow, the southern Oklahoma pollinators in the Arbuckle Mountains will have partly cloudy skies with temperatures returning into the lower 70s. Winds will be light to moderate, from the south to southeast. Across Texas cloudy skies will build during the day with a chance of showers building across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Winds will continue from the southeast with gusty condition in the edge communities topping 20 to 25 miles per hour. Temperatures will be in the 70s across the region, but the chance of precipitation will be from 40% in the edge communities to 20% across the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night the chance of rain continues across the entire region. Partly cloudy skies north and cloud to mostly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Temperatures overnight will be in the 50s and winds will be from the southeast at light to moderate levels.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau initially show little movement with light winds but then move to the northeast this evening on moderate southwest winds. Conditions this afternoon are mild with sunny skies, warm temperatures and light winds. The air mass shows little lift this afternoon but then becomes more bouyant this evening. The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau are mixed initially moving in a somewhat scattered manner but eventually head north (see 100m trajectory) towards Oklahoma. Most of the trajectory pathways will remain within Texas in the northern portion of the state. Winds today will be lite mostly from the north then tonight and tomorrow they will switch coming mostly from the southeast. Tomorrow in the edge communities gusty conditions up to 20-25 mile per hour will occur. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the 70's over central Texas and in the upper 60's from Dallas/Fort Worth northward today warming into the 70's tomorrow. Moisture will build in to the region tonight with most areas have a 20% plus chance of precipitation tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Winds tomorrow night will remain from the south and southeast and lite to moderate levels

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate Threat tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today but only moderate conditions for transport. Also we are close to the end of the pollen season for Juniperus ashei pollen. Conditions for pollen release are good today with winds that will be moderate from the south. Trajectories across the Edwards Plateau show a mixed atmosphere that eventually moves northward at both low and upper levels towards Oklahoma. Temperatures will be warm thus pollen should be available for entrainment and travel. The chance of precipitation in southern Oklahoma will be reflected today in terms of patchy morning fog. Across Texas the edge communities may experience patchy fog this morning but will clear. Tomorrow and then tomorrow night a chance of rain across the entire region will begin to build. Tomorrow the Edwards Plateau and surrounding areas will have a 20% to 40% chance of precipitation. Tomorrow night the chance of rain expands northward into Oklahoma for showers and thunderstorms. Tomorrow's temperatures will return to the 70's and tomorrow night lows will be mild, mostly in the upper 40's and low 50's.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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