The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, February 6 – TX/OK: Across the region, a chance of rain will build in with a chance of thunderstorms and showers with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. To the north in southern Oklahoma the chance of precipitation is 20% which builds to more than 60% in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau the chance of rain will be between 20% and 30%. The rain will occur as showers and thunderstorms that will move across the region once initiated. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60’s in most areas to the north and in the lower 70’s on the Plateau and extending to the southern edge communities, such as San Antonio. Winds will be from the southeast across most of the region but will turn more from the south in the western portions of the Edwards Plateau. Tonight similar conditions with the chance for precipitation will remain, although the chance will decline. Rain will once again be in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures across the region wil be in the mid to upper 50s in most areas except for the Edwards Plateau were temperatures in the upper 40’s will prevail. Winds will remain mostly from the south and southeast. Tomorrow conditions begin to improve with the chance of rain remaining from the Dallas/Fort Worth metro region to the north into southern Oklahoma. In the surrounding communities patchy morning fog will occur in the edge communities. Winds tomorrow will shift coming mostly from the west in the central and southern Texas region. Along the border winds will remain from the south. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will result in low temperatures in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds will rotate, coming from the north at lite to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau are mixed initially with areas in the southern edge areas of the plateau moving to the southwest. At the same time the remaining areas show the trajectories moving into western and northern areas of Texas, eventually travelling into western Oklahoma. Today there will be a building chance of both showers and thunderstorms that will wash any entrained pollen from the atmosphere. Temperatures will be warm, upper 60’s and low 70’s. Winds will remain at lite to moderate levels. Tomorrow the chance of precipitation will decrease except in the border region with Oklahoma. Temperatures will remain at about the same warmth and winds will switch to a more west to east flow. Tomorrow night temperatures cool off with most readings in the mid to low 40’s. The edge communities will be 5 to 8 degrees warmer. Winds will remain from the north to northwest at lite to moderate levels.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today with winds that will be moderate from the east and southeast and temperatures will be warm in the 70’s. Trajectories across the Edwards Plateau show a mixed atmosphere that eventually moves northward for most of the area, however along the southern edge communities’ winds move towards the southwest. A chance of rain across the entire region will begin to build today. The precipitation will occur as showers and thunderstorms. Where they occur expect any pollen in the atmosphere will be washed out. Tomorrow the area will begin to dry out with warm conditions and westerly winds. Tomorrow night the area will be partly cloudy with low temperatures cooling on moderate breezes from the north and northwest.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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