The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 February 2013

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, February 7 – TX/OK: Across the region cloudy conditions will occur after rain has moved through overnight. To the north today, in Oklahoma and the border region with Texas the chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the daylight hours. To the south conditions will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will return into the low 60’s in the Arbuckle Mountains rising to the 70’s across Texas. The edge communities will warm to the upper 70’s whereas the Plateau will be in the mid to upper 70’s. Across the northern region south to southwesterly flow will switch over to a more northerly flow with the weather system moving through the area. Further south in the edge communities’ winds will primarily be from the south and southwest although San Antonio will begin with a northerly flow then switch during the day. On the Plateau winds will be from the west and northwest in the western portion around San Angelo. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will remain across Texas and mostly cloudy skies to the north. A 20% chance of precipitation will remain in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Low temperatures overnight will be in the 40’s across the Texas region. In Oklahoma the lows will drop into the upper 30’s along the border. Winds will be lite to moderate from the north. Tomorrow skies will begin to clear although a bit cooler than today. High temperatures across Texas will drop into the upper 60’s in most areas. The edge communities will remain in the 70’s. Winds will remain at lite to moderate conditions from the north and northeast. Tomorrow night skies will begin to cloud up once again. Partly cloudy conditions will build to the north with lows in the low 40’s and upper 30’s in Oklahoma. Across Texas the lows will fall into the lower 50’s in the edge communities and in the mid to upper 40’s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds that have been from the north for the last day or so will switch coming from the east in the edge communities and from the southeast on the Edwards Plateau and in southern Oklahoma.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau move southward and to the southeast on north to northwesterly winds. Overnight the general northwesterly winds will move to a primary north to south flow moving the trajectories almost due south. Tomorrow the winds drift toward the east resulting in northeasterly flow across the region. Temperatures will be warm today with most areas recording in the 70’s. A chance of precipitation remains this morning to the north in Oklahoma. Tonight skies begin to thin with much of Texas having partly cloudy conditions. Low temperatures will be mild in the edge communities but seasonal across the Edwards Plateau and northward into Oklahoma. Tomorrow the sun returns with partly sunny to mostly sunny skies. On the Plateau mostly cloudy conditions will remain. Temperatures will be cooler by five to ten degrees. Winds will remain lite to moderate from the north and northeast. Tomorrow night cloudy conditions build in once again with lows temperatures remaining mild. Across Texas lows will be in the 40’s except along the edge communities’ where the lower 50’s will be prevalent.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow *** Conditions for pollen release are good today with winds that will be moderate from the north temperatures will be warm in the 70’s. The air will be buoyant and somewhat mixed across the Edwards Plateau. Trajectories across the Edwards Plateau show a mixed atmosphere that eventually moves both southeastward as well as southward. A chance of rain will remain to the north in southern Oklahoma and northern most Texas along the Oklahoma border. Tomorrow the area will begin to brighten with mostly sunny skies except on the Plateau where partly cloudy conditions are expected. Temperatures tomorrow will once again be warm with highs in the mid to low 70’s and upper 60’s. There is increasing evidence that other trees are beginning to pollinate and the overall load of Juniper pollen is declining. We are beginning to see the end of this year’s Ash Juniper pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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