The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 2 - TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow the weather will be mild with colder mostly sunny skies today, and warming into the 50s on Friday. Sunny skies will dominate across the region. Winds will be moderate from the north today with gusty conditions in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Both Austin and San Antonio will see gusts in the upper 20 mile per hour range. Across the Edwards Plateau temperatures will only reach into the upper 40s. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be lower with highs in the upper 30s in southern Oklahoma and low 30s in the north. Tonight clear skies will predominate and temperatures region wind will be in the mid- to lower 20s. Winds will remain from the north across the eastern Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. To the west a more southerly flow will build overnight and then the southerly flow will predominate tomorrow during the day. Temperatures will be in the 50s across the Edwards Plateau on Friday and winds will be moderate blowing from the south and southeast. In Oklahoma, temperatures will be in the 40s tomorrow with winds from the south. Tomorrow night the Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy whereas the surrounding areas will be mostly clear. Overnight temperatures will be milder with lows above freezing except for the far west Edwards Plateau area. Winds will be maintained from the south at light to moderate conditions.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains, Oklahoma, move southeastward on northerly to northeasterly winds today. Winds will be light and with the cold northerly flow the atmosphere will be dense. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Skies will be sunny over the entire forecast period with clear nights. Tonight under clear skies temperatures will fall below freezing conditions and dense atmosphere at ground level. However, overnight winds will switch coming from the south for tomorrow and tomorrow evening. With the southerly flow, tomorrow will warm towards the upper 40s. Tomorrow sunny skies will remain with warming temperatures. The warming atmosphere will be more buoyant than today with the light to moderate winds good for entrainment and travel. Mostly clear skies will remain tomorrow night with a dominant southerly flow at light to moderate levels. Low temperatures will drop to the mid 30s..

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and better conditions tomorrow in the Arbuckle Mountains population. Cool temperatures today are not conducive for pollen release, but warming tomorrow will likely promote pollen release in the afternoon. However, conditions for entrainment and travel will be moderate with light to moderate winds and a dense atmosphere that will keep most pollen close to the ground. Over the past couple of days, large amounts of pollen have been recorded in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau suggesting that the pollen has begun to be released across the region. This includes the detection of pollen in Waco as well as the Dallas/Ft. Worth area. Tomorrow, conditions will be better with temperatures close to 50. The communities affected will be in the Arbuckle Mountains as well as northward towards Oklahoma City. The overall concentration of pollen will depend upon how quickly the region warms tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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