The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

High

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2014


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Friday, January 3 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow the weather will be mild with warming conditions, sunny skies today building toward partly cloudy conditions tomorrow. Today high temperatures are expected to be in the 50s across Texas and the southern portion of Oklahoma with cooler temperatures northward. Warmer conditions will be to the southwest on and in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, where the mid- to upper 50s are expected. Winds will start at moderate levels this morning but will be building from the south with most areas seeing 20 to 25 mph conditions this afternoon. Tonight skies will begin mostly clear but the dominant southerly winds will bring moisture northward resulting in clouds building during the overnight hours along the edge of the Plateau. Lows will be seasonally warm with most areas in the mid- to upper 30s. Winds will maintain themselves at 10 to 15 mph overnight across the region. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will prevail in most areas, but in the surrounding communities clouds will have built, but they will dissipate early. High temperatures will be warming into the 60s across Texas. To the north in Oklahoma, tomorrow will bring temperatures just getting to 50 degrees. Winds will remain from the south at moderately strong conditions. However, to the north winds will switch to a more northerly flow during the afternoon. This is a change that will affect the entire forecast region tomorrow night. Cold air will drop south with lows getting into the 30s and low 40s in the southern communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The remainder of the region will be in the 20s. Winds may be gusty as the cold air moves in, however light to moderate conditions will take over once the cold air entrenches itself across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains move northward on moderate to strong southerly winds today. Winds will be locally gusty across the region from Oklahoma southward to the Edwards Plateau in Texas. Temperatures will just reach to the 50 mark today and then the lower 50s tomorrow. Skies will be sunny and warming today with more partly cloudy conditions tomorrow as the southerly breezes moves humidity northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight the skies will remain mostly clear and with the daytime heating temperatures will be above freezing conditions. Winds will steady and moderate to strong conditions coming from the south. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will remain building into mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Winds will start, tomorrow, from the south but in the afternoon colder, denser, air from the north will begin to turn the winds. This will begin in Oklahoma City tomorrow afternoon and be south of the Texas border during the early evening. With the change in wind direction, cold conditions will move into the area. Temperatures tomorrow night are expected to be in the lower 20s along the border and teens in central Oklahoma.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in the Texas populations. However in southern Oklahoma temperatures today will barely get to 50 degrees. It is felt that most pollen release occurs at temperatures above that mark. Winds will be moderate with gusty conditions at times. This does have the potential to entrain some pollen, and if so it will move northward on the southerly winds. Of greater concern are the winds moving north out of Texas. High levels of pollen are being recorded across the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. With a dominant south to north air flow with winds at moderate to strong conditions, pollen in the Oklahoma atmosphere from Texas is likely. The trajectories show the winds moving due north across central Oklahoma and into Kansas during the current forecast period. This flow will be curtailed as the cold front moves south tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Look at Texas Forecast for more information on the pollen threat from the south.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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