The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 3 – TX/OK: Across the region today and tomorrow the weather will be mild with warming conditions, sunny skies today building toward partly cloudy conditions tomorrow. Today high temperatures are expected to be in the 50s across Texas and the southern portion of Oklahoma with cooler temperatures northward. Warmer conditions will be to the southwest on and in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, where the mid- to upper 50s are expected. Winds will start at moderate levels this morning but will be building from the south with most areas seeing 20 to 25 mph conditions this afternoon. Tonight skies will begin mostly clear but the dominant southerly winds will bring moisture northward resulting in clouds building during the overnight hours along the edge of the Plateau. Lows will be seasonally warm with most areas in the mid- to upper 30s. Winds will maintain themselves at 10 to 15 mph overnight across the region. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will prevail in most areas, but in the surrounding communities clouds will have built, but they will dissipate early. High temperatures will be warming into the 60s across Texas. To the north in Oklahoma, tomorrow will bring temperatures just getting to 50 degrees. Winds will remain from the south at moderately strong conditions. However, to the north winds will switch to a more northerly flow during the afternoon. This is a change that will affect the entire forecast region tomorrow night. Cold air will drop south with lows getting into the 30s and low 40s in the southern communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. The remainder of the region will be in the 20s. Winds may be gusty as the cold air moves in, however light to moderate conditions will take over once the cold air entrenches itself across the region.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move northward on moderate to strong southerly winds today. Winds will be locally gusty, especially in the regions surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 50’s. Skies will be sunny and warming today with more partly cloudy conditions tomorrow as the southerly breezes moves humidity northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight the skies will become more partly cloudy resulting in above freezing conditions across Texas. Winds will remain steady and light to moderate conditions coming from the south. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will remain but with some sun breaking through especially in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid- to upper 60’s across the region. Winds will maintain themselves from the south at moderate levels. Some areas will see gusts building to 30 mph. The warming atmosphere will be a bit more buoyant than today. Tomorrow night winds will shift coming from the north as a front of cold air drops through the region. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 20’s on the Plateau and across north Texas. The communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will drop into the 30’s. Most areas will begin the forecast period with relatively stable atmosphere, but as the wind changes tomorrow night more buoyant conditions will exist. Winds across the region will be moderate with some areas seeing gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Excellent conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow in the Texas populations. Today temperatures in the 50’s with bright sunshine and a warming atmosphere will promote pollen release. Conditions for entrainment and travel will be moderate to moderately good with moderate winds and a warming atmosphere. These conditions will provide about the best conditions for pollen entrainment and travel yet seen this year. Tomorrow should be even better as high temperatures are expected to get into the mid- to upper 60’s. There will be greater amounts of humidity, but wind speeds will be maintained if not even a bit stronger than today. The atmosphere will be stable and entrainment along with long distance transport is expected. With the dominant southerly winds areas due north are at risk of seeing pollen in their atmosphere. The Dallas/Ft. Worth region along with communities in central Oklahoma are at risk for pollen deposition.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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