The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2014

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 6 – TX/OK: The region today will be climbing out of the coldest conditions of the season. Overnight low temperatures have toyed with temperatures below 0 degrees Fahrenheit south throughout Texas and especially in central Oklahoma. To the south lows in San Antonio were well into the lower 20s with teens on the Edwards Plateau, Oklahoma City was in the teens to below zero.. Most areas today will struggle to get close to freezing. Winds will begin from the north today but overnight the direction will begin to shift to a flow from the south, eventually bringing warmer conditions for tomorrow. Temperatures tonight will remain dangerously cold with lows expected in the low teens. Tomorrow sunny conditions and southerly winds will begin the warm-up from the deep freeze. Skies will be sunny tomorrow and across Oklahoma the temperatures will build into the mid 40’s. Winds will be from the south, moving between 10 and 20 mph northward. The overnight temperatures will dip below freezing once again but only into the mid-20s to 30 degrees.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move initially southward in the dense atmosphere, bringing the last of the frigid air over the region. Tonight winds will start to turn by being light and variable then starting to pick up from the south. These winds will eventually begin to ameliorate the cold with warmer conditions across the region tomorrow. The air over the region is cold and dense thus the winds that move northward will override many areas leaving pools of very cold air throughout the day tomorrow and into tomorrow evening. Winds tomorrow and tomorrow night will work to push the remaining cold conditions further northward. In Oklahoma lows are expected to remain at or below freezing. It is not expected that conditions today and tomorrow will be conducive for pollen release. If any pollen is shed it would be tomorrow as conditions strive to get into the mid-40s. With the very cold conditions today into tomorrow little pollen is expected.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat Tomorrow *** Very Poor conditions for pollen release today in the Arbuckle populations as the frigid weather keeps temperatures well below the level that is good for pollen release. Today temperatures will remain below freezing in the 20s. Winds will switch this evening starting a warm up with southerly breezes bringing milder conditions to the south of Oklahoma. Tomorrow, temperatures will begin to build but still remain at levels that are not particularly conducive for pollen release. Conditions for entrainment and travel will be poor both days with heavy dense cold air moving at ground level.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page